Chances of NOT having a miscarriage

peachy13 · April 2017

Hi everyone --- I'm copying this from some of the previous BMBs. Despite having miscarried before against the odds, I do find this chart helpful and comforting. I know we're all still pretty early on in our pregnancies, so I hope this chart will help you.

As always, wishing everyone a happy and healthy nine months!

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

vvitchhazel · April 2017

Thanks for sharing this!

jlemons-2 · April 2017

Thanks for this!

ameliabedelia-2 · April 2017

I love this. Too often we focus on all the negatives, when more often than not, it works out:)

txmomma16 · April 2017

Thank you for this @peachy13 ! I've been thinking the odds were a lot higher than they are, and now I feel a lot better.

threatlevelmidnight · April 2017

Love this! Thank you!

acgonzalez22 · April 2017

Thank you for sharing !

moonlady-2 · April 2017

Thanks. I needed to see this today!

dragonette505 · April 2017

@peachy13 Thanks so much, (**tw Of course I've mc'ed at both 8 and 10 weeks so those are still both huge milestones for me! end tw**) Its great to see the odds are generally really good! Great post!

dkizz82 · April 2017

Thanks so much! I worry sinc ehaving MCed once st 8 weeks but we knew earlier the baby wasn't growing on schedule.

holzie-2 · April 2017

Thanks!

SierraGood · April 2017

Thanks for posting

beaandthebabes · April 2017

Thank you. This is comforting.

rubyrose_0919 · April 2017

@peachy13 thank you for posting this! I've never seen this before and have found it extremely helpful in reducing my fears and anxiety this week. Thank you!!

pandawares · April 2017

Ever since you posted this, it has been my lifeline. I tell DH the "likelihood of stickiness" daily now.

oopsmama · April 2017

Thank you!!! This brought tears to my eyes. (Darn hormones). 6w 6d. 95.7% relieved!

mrsorigami · April 2017

Thank you so much.

Nikkilegare · April 2017

Thank you!! Even though we saw the heart beating at 7 weeks, I'm 7w4d and still so nervous! Those percentages put my mind at ease (a little!)

40momma · April 2017

Every time I start to stress and jump on Google for answers (which does absolutely no good), I come back to this post and remind myself that that I'm moving along nicely. I'm 40 so I'm trying hard not to focus on that though, I'm healthy, active and in some of the best shape of my life

collectiveliving · April 2017

I'm 40 too, and pregnant for the first time! Also trying to focus on the positive. So so excited!!!!!

moonlady-2 · April 2017

I keep checking this. I love how every day the number is a little higher for a "take home baby".

One day at a time!

BabyO2016 · April 2017

Thanks for sharing this!

laceyavanjoff · April 2017

Thank you. I miscarried last at 14w5d almost 3 years ago and am now 6w1d. I needed this

failuretofly · May 2017

thought i'd bump this since it's probably the most reassuring thing ever!

mrsjem77 · May 2017

Where did you get your information? I was just at my reproductive endocrinologist yesterday and he said the risk of miscarriage is more about the heartbeat rate then the actual date.

peachy13 · May 2017

@kvacmak thanks, I agree! I had to dig for it the other day so thank you for bumping

@mrsjem77 this is a thread that is posted in many of the BMBs. Here is some specific text (taken directly from another BMB):

User @l4rk from the January 2016 BMB found that she only felt a little bit better after looking at statistics about this topic, and she realised why;

"...articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies!"

So she inverted this week-by-week chart to focus on the chances of NOT having an early miscarriage.

vvitchhazel · May 2017

Shout out to J16!

ngarciabyu · May 2017

I have seen a lot of those statistics and those are accurate, except for most sources indicate that the numbers are for when after a heartbeat is detected. At 6 weeks if an u/s detects a healthy HB chances of miscarriage are under 10%, at 8 weeks w/ HB chances drop below 3% and then below 1-2% after first tri. I could grab the sources if anyone would like, but I'm just throwing the general gist of it together.

vflux33 · May 2017

**Lurker**

Can't speak to accuracy, but I showed this to MH who is an excel nerd and he plotted it for you guys for convenient viewing. GL!

Tennis11785 · May 2017

Yeah one of the things that makes this chart a bit misleading, from what I understand, is it's the chance of a miscarriage if the fetus is developing properly. But what this doesn't account for is situations where you may have had a missed miscarriage at say the 6 week mark, but don't find out until week 10 (and thus think you're in that <2 percent chance something goes wrong category), or when the fetus has an unknown issue. It also doesn't account for any other factors such as previous losses, age, etc.

If it helps you great, I don't want to take away any resource that helps people feel more confident on this scary journey. If not, don't worry, who knows if it's accurate for you anyway.

wabash15 · May 2017

@Tennis11785 hugs

makinganexpatbaby · May 2017

Thank you so much for this. So often I focus on the chances of something BAD happening when in reality most women have healthy and happy pregnancies.

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