Probability of NOT having a miscarriage (Updated w/ Link)

newmomtobeLA

I am re-posting this for the people who are irritated with the bickering and cattiness going back and forth on the other thread. Some of you say its simple to just ignore and skip over, but every time we click on the thread it takes us to your crazy comments. Please don't ruin this post so women who just want to see the info every day can just click and view. Thanks! 

The following link @JamieK1882 posted below in the comments: https://spacefem.com/pregnant/mc.php?m=01&d=10&y=16

Copying this from another birth month board.  I thought it may be helpful as we get through these early days.

Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D 67%
3W, 1D 67.10%
3W, 2D 67.40%
3W, 3D 68%
3W, 4D 68.70%
3W, 5D 69.70%
3W, 6D 70.80%
4W, 0D 72%
4W, 1D 73.50%
4W, 2D 74.80%
4W, 3D 76.40%
4W, 4D 77.90%
4W, 5D 79.50%
4W, 6D 81.10%
5W, 0D 82.70%
5W, 1D 84.20%
5W, 2D 85.60%
5W, 3D 87%
5W, 4D 88.30%
5W, 5D 89.50%
5W, 6D 90.60%
6W, 0D 91.60%
6W, 1D 92.50%
6W, 2D 93.40%
6W, 3D 94.10%
6W, 4D 94.70%
6W, 5D 95.30%
6W, 6D 95.70%
7W, 0D 96.10%
7W, 1D 96.50%
7W, 2D 96.80%
7W, 3D 97%
7W, 4D 97.20%
7W, 5D 97.40%
7W, 6D 97.50%
8W, 0D 97.60%
8W, 1D 97.70%
8W, 2D 97.80%
8W, 3D 97.80%
8W, 4D 97.90%
8W, 5D 97.90%
8W, 6D 97.90%
9W, 0D 97.90%
9W, 1D (and on) 98%+

PrimRoseMama

Thank you! Did you want to change the title of the other thread? Or we can ask that poster to edit? Because (and I'm not trying to nay-say) having two different threads can be confusing. Also, I need to remind you that you can't tell others what to post or how to post. Its a free community and as long as we follow TOU its permissible to agree or disagree in any thread.

par_mach_kai

Thanks for the repost. I look at the bump mostly through my phone and it automatically goes to the last page of comments, not the front page where I have a daily look 4w5d today. 

newmomtobeLA

Good idea, I didn't start the old board but @lilyaster  can you change the name of the other board to OLD BOARD or something else to start a more positive board here? Thanks!

_darth

Thank you for the new thread. For future reference, you can just click on the page number instead of the title to bring you to the top post on that page.

PrimRoseMama

These are threads-- not boards. The October 2016 boards > threads > posts. 

skyemarie09

Thank you for this! I'm really hoping my chances mirror or are close to this so I would know my chances. That would be great and help me stress a lot less 

UponAStar16

Even though last time I was unfortunately in the bad 2.5%, I'm still really liking these numbers more and more as the days go by!  reminds me a little of those t shirts that say "baby loading"

artcheese

Here's the link if anyone wants to save and bookmark it: https://spacefem.com/pregnant/mc.php?m=08&d=10&y=12

PrimRoseMama

Bump for any new O16 members. 

stillcozy

@BumpAdmin @BumpCaitlin could you announce this for them?

PeggyOlsonFTW

@Lindsayleigh1989 I know we're a "new" board, but we're capable of asking the bump gods if we want this stickied. You don't need to do that for us. 

JamieK1882

https://spacefem.com/pregnant/mc.php?m=01&d=10&y=16

I had saved the above link from my last pregnancy. It essentially says the same thing, but I find it reassuring if anyone wants to take a look.

SuperKristy85

Is this also calculated from your last period? 

SuperKristy85

nevermind! that second link posted by @JamieK1882 answers that question 

_darth

PeggyOlsonFTW said:

@Lindsayleigh1989 I know we're a "new" board, but we're capable of asking the bump gods if we want this stickied. You don't need to do that for us. 

I second this. Actually, as much as it would be helpful to have the information pinned, I don't feel comfortable with it going up as it is. While I am sure @octobermom16 had the best intentions when posting this, it presents a couple of problems:

1. Making this thread an announcement with the current title, without the original thread for context, would promote the idea that respectful disagreement is not welcome on the board. 

2. Again, without the original thread for context (where one user attempted to enforce an arbitrary nature on reality at everyone else's expense), referring to people's comments as "crazy" sounds quite insensitive and abelist. 

@octobermom16 Since the offending user appears to have gone away, would you be open to rephrasing your post to see if people are more willing to get it stickied? Could you also please include the source blog post that was linked by @JamieK1882, for easy access to the studies? 

PeggyOlsonFTW

DarthFuriosa said:

PeggyOlsonFTW said:

@Lindsayleigh1989 I know we're a "new" board, but we're capable of asking the bump gods if we want this stickied. You don't need to do that for us. 

I second this. Actually, as much as it would be helpful to have the information pinned, I don't feel comfortable with it going up as it is. While I am sure @octobermom16 had the best intentions when posting this, it presents a couple of problems:

1. Making this thread an announcement with the current title, without the original thread for context, would promote the idea that respectful disagreement is not welcome on the board. 

2. Again, without the original thread for context (where one user attempted to enforce an arbitrary nature on reality at everyone else's expense), referring to people's comments as "crazy" sounds quite insensitive and abelist. 

@octobermom16 Since the offending user appears to have gone away, would you be open to rephrasing your post to see if people are more willing to get it stickied? Could you also please include the source blog post that was linked by @JamieK1882, for easy access to the studies? 

she didn't. She's back. 

_darth

@PeggyOlsonFTW Ugh. Just ugh. 

PeggyOlsonFTW

DarthFuriosa said:

@PeggyOlsonFTW Ugh. Just ugh. 

Well, one of them is back. The other isn't as far as I know. 

newmomtobeLA

Post is updated @DarthFuriosa . The comments were crazy (to me) because they had nothing to do with the original post. I believe a new discussion thread should have started to discuss whatever people needed to banter back and forth about. I just think its respectful to the poster and viewers if the post is about apples and oranges to start a new thread if people want to discuss rainbows and lollipops. Some people just want to see more information about apples and oranges and when we have to sift through rainbow and lollipop comments the post is no longer a resource. I only created this post for people solely interested in the topic. Hope this makes sense, and hope you enjoyed my attempt at a cute metaphor

_darth

@octobermom16 Yes, I totally get it all that makes sense, in the context of the original post. 

However, if this post gets stickied, the original post gets lost, and the warning at the beginning of this one becomes easily open to misinterpretation. Without the original for context, it can come off as unwelcoming in terms of mental health stigmatisation. It's a delicate subject, but an important one. 

Maybe swap the paragraph out for something like "This is a sensitive topic. Please be mindful of the experiences of others when posting."? It's more neutral, but gets the same point across without referencing the old thread.

Again, I know you had the best intentions with this, and I am really glad you restarted the thread. I'm just hoping we can polish it a bit so it can be stickied.  

Regarding subject changes, unfortunately Bump admins tend to frown pretty badly on spawning threads specifically to resolve arguments. That is why established members of the community will call out inappropriate behaviour as it happens. I generally agree with staying on topic, but every community requires occasional self-moderation in order to grow. I do completely get your frustration with the situation, and I am glad it got resolved. 

As I mentioned above, you can get to the top post on a page by clicking the page number. It's really handy when you need to refer to the original post, but the comments are overwhelming.  

Selena2016

@octobermom16 thank you! I like to look at this information daily. It helps me get through this tough time. 

stillcozy

Whoops sorry I thought I was in the PSA one where lots of people were tagging the admins and I know the more tags the better to get their attention. Sometimes my app switches threads on me sorry was just trying to be helpful 

UponAStar16

Haha this may seem like a weird out-of-context question but now that you mention the app switching things around, I'm wondering if maybe it switched if you were logged in under two screen names....before, - @Lindsayleigh1989 and @JamieK1882 - your names both had the same exact profile (face) pic next to them, then one changed to the cat? Wasn't sure if you noticed that too?

PeggyOlsonFTW

@UponAStar16 sometimes the app does weird things with profile pictures. It messes them up a lot 

AshleyGemini24

So glad ya'll posted this. Keep checking my probability every few days. 

UponAStar16

@PeggyOlsonFTW oh ok thanks and good to know, so it's not just my app (or my mind!) playing tricks on me haha

ebk1020

Is this calculated from last menstrual cycle or actual conception?

LGW2015

Last menstrual cycle. That's how you calculate how far along you are. But if you're like me who has a really long cycle, you take your conception/O date (if you know it) and add 2 weeks before it. Even though that's not when your actual period was, that's how they figure it out. They assume you O'd on CD 14 even though most women don't.

ebk1020

Thanks for the info.  My doc said I was 4 weeks along when I went for my blood test which threw me off as I had been tracking and knew when I had ovulated which at the time was 11 days before.

LGW2015

11dpo would put you at 3 1/2 weeks so it doesn't seem that far off?

ebk1020

I realize that now.  I was not aware that they include weeks that you're technically not pregnant.  I just assumed that it was calculated from conception.

LGW2015

Gotcha! Yeah it's kinda strange haha

LGW2015

Bump

PrimRoseMama

LGW2015 said:

Last menstrual cycle. That's how you calculate how far along you are. But if you're like me who has a really long cycle, you take your conception/O date (if you know it) and add 2 weeks before it. Even though that's not when your actual period was, that's how they figure it out. They assume you O'd on CD 14 even though most women don't.

Actually, if you are fairly certain of your Ovulation date you can start counting from there. It's more accurate with long cycles than LMP. That's what I'm doing until I get little bean's measurements. 

krzyriver

Weird how even after multiple losses (latest at 9 weeks) it still makes me feel better to watch that number go up every day....

danabeck

had you already Seen a heartbeat before the miscarraige?

krzyriver

@danabeck Is this question directed at me? If so, yes. We had 3 ultrasounds. Baby always measured small but had a heartbeat at the second one, so my doctor wasn't worried. But when we went in for the third one, baby measured smaller than the previous ultrasound and her heart had stopped. I went in for a D&C the next day.

westcoastfoodie

Bump

agogo1

Sorry if this bugs anyone but..bump! It's hard-ish to hunt back multiple pages on mobile...

alysie89

Bump