October 2016 Moms

Probability of NOT having a miscarriage (Updated w/ Link)

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Re: Probability of NOT having a miscarriage (Updated w/ Link)

  • Everyday DH asks me my percent, lol. Bump.
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  • Earlier in my pregnancy, I looked at this chart literally every day and it was so helpful for my anxiety.  But I'm just curious about these stats now, because my doctor told me that after seeing the heartbeat at the 8 week u/s, chances of miscarriage drops under 10%, and after the 12 week u/s, chances drop under 5%.   Does anyone know a possible explanation for that discrepancy?  I like these percentages better!
    Me (28) & DH (29)
    Married: May 2015
    BFP 1/24/16 EDD 10/4/16
    It's a boy!

  • @Blonde1817 Every study has slightly different results. I was told that if you hear a good heartbeat at 8 weeks, your chance is less than 1%.....

    E will be 18 on July 24th
    Z was born October 16, 2016
    #3 Due October 9, 2018

    MC - November 29, 2012
    CP - November 15, 2014
    D&C for MMC - October 13, 2015




  • @Blonde1817 I assume it's different studies. The link at the top of this thread links to where she compiled these stats, and she includes the two (I think) references she based them on. I haven't read them myself but they shouldn't be hard to find if you're interested.
  • Bump! 


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    Lilypie First Birthday tickers

  • Bump! Coz I'm going on to 8 weeks tomorrow and it's cause for a mini-celebration! :)
  • I'm not on the chart anymore. I'm trying to see that as a good thing, but not having solid numbers makes me oddly anxious. 
    Relax.breathe.relax.breathe....
  • @br0co1ii Me too! It makes me happy, it's so low it's negligible! It's the lowest of the low :)
    Pregnancy Ticker

  • BUMP!

    Me: 32 & DH: 37
    Married: November 2014
    TTC #1 Since: October 2015
    BFP #1: 11/18/15 - CP
    BFP #2: 2/8/16 - EDD 10/20/16
    IT'S A BOY!!!!
    DS Born 10/16/16

  • WHY have I not looked at this post before?! I had no clue what it was and just never clicked. I'm obsessed and love being able to watch the % going up!! 
  • This is amazing information it gives me so much encouragement, where on earth did you find these numbers ???
  • There is a link in the original post that has info on what studies the numbers came from, etc.  Also, I am no longer on the chart, yippee!
    Pregnancy Ticker
  • BlueGal1 said:
    This is amazing information it gives me so much encouragement, where on earth did you find these numbers ???
    My husband is constantly asking me for updates. What's your percentage today?!
  • Sorry I keep bumping this... I don't want to lose it.
  • Graduating this table tomorrow!  Bump! :)
  • this post infuriates me and the fact it keeps popping up makes it worse. these aren't scientific at all. 
  • @mrszoess It comforts a lot of people, so in that it is definitely helpful. It's based on a study and while that's not the total picture, it is one picture. Does it mean that it is accurate for an individual? Obviously not. There are certainly individual factors involved as well. Most of us don't have that much information on what is going on with us, so this is the best we can do. I have a friend with a genetic condition that causes her to miscarry around 12 weeks. Making it to six weeks, seven weeks, ten weeks means NOTHING because the condition causes problems at 12 weeks. This chart would mean nothing to her. But at least she knows what is going on with herself!

    We can hope and dream and look at a chart that shows that the further along in a pregnancy, the more likely someone is to end up with a take-home baby. And we can count each day as a day closer to that goal.


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