Odds of NOT Having a Miscarriage

hestia-is-wearie

Stolen from April '19, which was stolen from March '19 via Sept. '18.

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(July '19 edit x2)
***TW: This post contains miscarriage statistics for women who are pregnant for the first time. For some of us, especially those who have experienced losses, especially multiple losses, and people who have made it past 12 weeks with a loss, these charts may bring more anxiety and sadness than relief and comfort. For loss moms, being reminded of this chart can bring back the shame of “What did I do so wrong to be in the minority?” when in fact losses are far more common than this chart leads you to believe. 

To loss moms: You have every right to feel anxious, to be sad & angry that you’ve been on the other side of this chart. It’s okay to not be comforted by these. Lean into your support system. Whatever you need to do to protect your heart is okay. Your uterus does not have ears. Whatever you’re feeling right now is valid, understandable, and will not impact the outcome of this pregnancy. 

Original post continues below. Thanks to @jrm_14 for the TTCAL perspective. Best of luck to everyone on this journey, no matter where you are.***

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Hi ladies,

This is the chart that I look at daily. All credit goes to @l4rk for the following: 

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies! 

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

ETA Stats from Expecting Better based off her research. Reversed to show positive side.

6W                     ~89%
7W                     ~92.5%
8W                     ~94.9%
9W                     ~96.5%
10W                   ~97%
11W+                 >98%

Overall odds of making it full-term based on Expecting Better:
~95% if no previous miscarriage. 75% with previous miscarriage (does not matter if multiple or not). She implies it's likely higher than 75% if using progesterone supplements but doesn't have the stats for that. 

cahales

I’ve seen this on a few boards, love this perspective! Thanks for sharing

literatureandink

@bumpadmin sticky please!!!!!

jrm_14

“*lurking* A bit of perspective here from someone with recurrent losses. People with losses, especially multiple losses, and people who have made it past 12 weeks with a loss, are already on the crappy side of these statistics. Looking at these charts often brings more anxiety and sadness. Perhaps a bit of consideration for ones who have been there should be taken. While this chart may be helpful to some, for many, they see this and feel worse. For loss moms, being reminded of this chart can bring back the shame of “What did I do so wrong to be in the minority?” when in fact losses are far more common than this chart leads you to believe  

To loss moms: You have every right to feel anxious, to be sad & angry that you’ve been on the other side of this chart. This chart shows statistics for a typically developing, healthy woman and pregnancy. It’s okay to not be comforted by these. Lean into your support system. Whatever you need to do to protect your heart is okay. Your ute does not have ears. Whatever you’re feeling right now is valid, understandable, and will not impact the outcome of this pregnancy. 

hestia-is-wearie

@jrm_14 I appreciate your perspective, and you're absolutely right. I definitely did not mean to drum up shame or sadness in recurrent loss moms. Do you mind if I go back and edit my OP to include some of the things you said here? Should I add a TW within? What does everyone else think? 

jrm_14

@hestia14 I appreciate your reply. Often this chart seems like a great thing to copy, without much thought. I didn’t think it was your intention to shame others.
You can absolutely edit your OP. I’m still on the bench so I positively won’t be in this BMB. I hope all of you can come up with a way to help support both sides of the fear of MC & people who have experienced it as well. 
Best of luck to everyone, especially loss moms & IFers ❤️

hestia-is-wearie

@jrm_14 OP has been edited. Hopefully future BMBs will adopt our version. 
Thanks again for sharing your perspective. Thinking of you and all loss moms/IFers 

NicholeL16

I think the title of the thread makes it pretty clear what it is. As someone coming out of a very recent loss, I wouldn’t read the thread if that was something that was going to bother me. In reading the introductions it seems that most of this group has expirenced one or more loss. We have all been talking about that pretty openly and I hope that continues. I would put more focus on what the mommas within this group want to see.

mamahmh2

@NicholeL16 I wholeheartedly agree! I love our openness and willingness to discuss our pain with each other... I knew there was no ill-will meant by this post, and honestly having experienced a loss of my own... I found it comforting to read. 

indulgentgypsy

Having been on the wrong side of this chart...

Normally I scroll past these and don't look, because I have had the numbers work against me. But I decided to look today, and honestly I am glad I did. It is refreshing to see the instant support, especially from a new group. The TW made me want to cry (in a good way!) thank you for thinking of all of us mamas

anonellis

— TW — loss

@jrm_14 I too am lurking so no real right to complain but I hate this post too as someone who had a loss.  But more than that, I hate it bc it’s incorrect and just copied and pasted a million times after being sourced from somewhere super random and unclear.  According to my doctors the odds are significantly higher (and generic odds that don’t take into account your age and risk factors also aren’t that useful). Great if it makes you feel better, but not based on science...

NicholeL16

I just don’t know why it matters to people that aren’t in our group what we post. Why not let us manage our own group?

hestia-is-wearie

More information about these statistics is available if you click through the link. Below is copied and pasted from the source page.

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Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed [600] women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

onaed

@indulgentgypsy same here! This actually made me feel more positive which I wasn’t expecting. 

suzycupcake

NicholeL16 said:

I just don’t know why it matters to people that aren’t in our group what we post. Why not let us manage our own group?

*dirty lurker* Advocating for **multiple loss Moms** by means of posting a respectful and differing perspective does not interfere with how you PA-ly conduct yourself in 'your' group. You don't own the internet. 

gembud

I am glad that the original post was edited to better reflect all types of moms here, but for people who are not in the group to be so combatitive is not fair to all of us within the group. I’m a first timer and this post helped ease my anxiety. To see @NicholeL16 be unfairly attacked makes uncomfortable to even join this group now, for fear I’ll be shamed for wanting some content that others will not. If we see a title we know will cause us pain why don’t we just scroll past - because maybe that same post is the only thing getting someone else through the day.

NicholeL16

suzycupcake said

*dirty lurker* Advocating for **multiple loss Moms** by means of posting a respectful and differing perspective does not interfere with how you PA-ly conduct yourself in 'your' group. You don't own the internet. 

Neither do you. This is a space for July moms to connect and this is how we choose to do it. We have talked very openly about loss in this group so far. Many of us, including myself, have experienced loss, and we are comfortable with how things are going. The only people unhappy about it are lurkers. It’s really not any of your business what we do in this group.

mamabear0619

@gbud630Same, first time mom here as well. I found comfort in the post since I've been very anxious. Be kind

coco2787

NicholeL16 said:

suzycupcake said

*dirty lurker* Advocating for **multiple loss Moms** by means of posting a respectful and differing perspective does not interfere with how you PA-ly conduct yourself in 'your' group. You don't own the internet. 

Neither do you. This is a space for July moms to connect and this is how we choose to do it. We have talked very openly about loss in this group so far. Many of us, including myself, have experienced loss, and we are comfortable with how things are going. The only people unhappy about it are lurkers. It’s really not any of your business what we do in this group.

Wrong. I am a loss mom and I loathe this chart with a passion. I've talked to many loss moms about this chart, and there is a pretty unanimous agreement that we hate it. Especially when you experience a missed miscarriage and think you are mostly "safe". The reality is, these statistics give false hope and do not take into account an individuals history, age, medical conditions, etc.  I'm glad people get comfort from it, but no amount of reassurance will change the outcome of a pregnancy.  

Here's the thing about lurkers commenting. A lot of us have been around TB for years and have made real, genuine friendships. And we have each others backs, especially loss moms. So yeah, we're going to do what we can to protect each other's hearts. Of course people have the option not to open this thread, but TBH, I wish it wouldn't be posted because I don't want other moms to go through the experience that I did and be reassured by false statistics and then be blindsided by a 2nd tri loss.  

Also, no one was “attacked”. 

NicholeL16

@coco2787 I too have been a part of the bump for years. I’m very close with my last BMB. We frequently travel from near and far to connect in person. If you’re part of this group and aren’t comfortable with this post that’s something worth talking about. I think the original poster has edited it to accommodate everyone to the best of her ability. I think the women in this group are strong confident women and can speak for themselves. I don’t think lurkers need to come in and try to dictate what is posted.

NicholeL16

Also, I don’t feel attacked. I think we are just having a conversation.

hestia-is-wearie

I'm going to go back and edit my OP one more time to clarify exactly what these statistics represent - miscarriage statistics of women trying to conceive for the first time. Because of the nature of these statistics, they unfortunately do not represent women who have experienced a loss (or women who have living biological children, for that matter). Perhaps a better title for this post on future BMBs (if they use it) would be "First-time pregnancy odds of not having a miscarriage." That way, non-first timers or loss moms aren't thrown off when they read it.
I posted this chart after seeing it in previous BMBs and the overwhelmingly positive responses it received. (Although I looked back at April 19 and saw that the tone shifted on towards the end, so that's on me for not reading through first.) This is my first pregnancy, but there is a history of loss in my immediate family - some early and some after the first trimester. Like many pregnant women, miscarriage is my number one fear. When I first saw these stats, I was a little skeptical myself, but the positive responses of TB users made me click through to the site and check it out further. I shared it with the hopes to ease the minds of others, and I again apologize for not considering loss moms before I copied and posted.
Again, the author of this study links numerous other miscarriage studies on her site that may apply to your situation better than the stats in this post.

coco2787

@hestia14 I don't fault you for posting the chart, I know it pops up on every BMB and people who post it have good intentions.  I appreciate the edits you made and for being understanding of people who are upset up the chart.  

@NicholeL16 yes, women can speak for themselves, but I imagine the reason more loss moms haven't spoken up about how they feel about the chart is because they aren't even opening this thread. 

NicholeL16

@coco2787 I see that as a positive thing. The post was titled appropriately so those that don’t want to see it don’t have to open the thread.

Tippy05

As a loss mom, I also hate this chart.

**TW**
I had a MMC and saw the heartbeat at 8 weeks only to find out at 12 weeks there was no more heartbeat so to see those numbers that I "should" have been safez
**END TW**

However, I am not offended or upset that this was posted. The OP didn't mean any ill-intent by posting it and although these charts and numbers means nothing to me, if it makes someone else feel better, go for it.

This is the internet and we're all adults. If you don't want to see or read something, scroll on.

xtinecatherine

I have been on pregnancy boards for a long time and I know that 99% of the time, people post things to support and help others.  No matter what we write, there is the off chance that someone is going to be upset or offended by a post.  The intent of this post is to help those with normal pregnancies who might be anxious about this unknown first trimester, feel better about what logically their statistics are.  However, with that being said, there are a lot of pregnancies that do not fit into that normal box.  Clearly any mom to be who has had a loss is going to be outside of these statistics and will be much more cautiously optimistic when it comes to their pregnancies.  As a pregnant mom to be who is over 40, I know that these statistics are not correct for me either.  However, does it bother me that this post is here? No.  Am I happy that it will give some people comfort? Yes.  Does this post somehow show that we are insensitive to the feelings of those who have experienced loss before or those with a complicated pregnancy?  In my opinion, no.   With that being said, everyone is entitled to their opinions and those who do not feel it is applicable to them have every right to share their opinion or simply scroll past.  But I know that through online dialogue, feelings can be unintentionally hurt as things come out just that much harsher when they are typed rather than spoken.  

cahales

I am a loss mom and I choose to find comfort in this. I’d rather have hope than anxiety and stress through the time that I do have in my pregnancies.
No one is ever completely going to agree on anything, but if people find comfort in it.. is that such a bad thing? I think it has good intentions and titled appropriately.

kiki75

*lurker* *TW*
I don’t think anyone is trying to tell you how to run your board but many of us are protective of current loss moms and, statistically, those who will become loss moms. I firmly believe in whatever keeps you sane during first tri. But this chart is missing one critical caveat: these are the chances of not having a miscarriage—provided the embryo has developed properly up to that point. When I had my MMC at 9 weeks, I felt terrible thinking that I had lost the baby when I had a 98% chance of keeping it. But, the embryo stopped growing at 5.5 weeks, when I only had an 88% chance. We’re just trying to let our experience help others. 

jessg2223

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