Staying Aware of Zika Predictions

monkey41

A paper was published this week on the expected occurrence and abundance of the primary mosquito species that can carry Zika in the contiguous U.S. for this year. 
This link has the most reassuring take on the data and a straight-forward explanation:
https://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/03/17/this_map_shows_most_zika_vulnerable_parts_of_the_u_s.html

This link has a cool graphic of the expected month-to-month trends and is where you can directly link to the original paper:
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/19850/potential-zika-virus-risk-estimated-50-us-cities

mrs_hoyahoo

Thanks for sharing! I went to Costa Rica in January, right after the CDC issued it's first warning. I wasn't pregnant at the time, but it was enough to freak me out. 

If anyone's looking for a good bugspray, apparently Victoria Secret's Bombshell perfume is pretty effective #science https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/01/30/464740275/whats-the-best-way-to-keep-mosquitoes-from-biting

whaat

I'm very concerned about this. I live near marsh and water on the east coast near some pretty big orange dots. Looking at that map, however, made me hopeful that the government will do more about this (sadly, because not all of those cities are poor).

AlexLindzz

We live right outside of Washington DC...can't help but still be worried. 

2undertwo2bee

I live right outside of DC too.  Just ordered the bug spray they recommended.  Guess I'll be wearing it non stop. 

kns1988

@ewiltz1921, which bug spray did you get?

earichar23

I live in a red dot. This is why my husband wants me to stay in the house until I give birth. I am officially bubble girl. My summer is about to suck.

agnesela

I'm scheduled to travel to one of the countries on the CDC's "Zika Travel Notices" list in June (for work). I'll definitely talk to my doctor about at my first appointment & decide what to do from there. 

But in the meantime, what are your thoughts? It sounds like risks are greatest in the first trimester, and if this sweet pea sticks I'd be well into the second by then... 

AlexLindzz

@agnesela We were scheduled to take a cruise to Mexico in April and had to cancel after I found out I was pregnant. For me, I think that I wouldn't be able to enjoy my vacation because I'd be worried the whole time. Also, my m/s would probably be peaking during that (basing off my previous pregnancy). Talk to your doctor and then go from there! I am very anxious to hear a doctors opinion on all of this at my first appointment...maybe I overreacted and just gave up a cruise 

ficbot

Where I live, they said there is pretty much no chance of infection. We don't have those mosquitos here and it is too cold for them. I am fine with not traveling for now and my husband does not travel for business.

I am a teacher so I am much more worried about getting exposed to chicken pox or hand foot & mouth. I am on Match break right now and when we get back, I will be just a few weeks away from clearing the first trimester. I hope nothing happens!

KilgraveMadeMeDoIt

AlexLindzz said:

@agnesela We were scheduled to take a cruise to Mexico in April and had to cancel after I found out I was pregnant. For me, I think that I wouldn't be able to enjoy my vacation because I'd be worried the whole time. Also, my m/s would probably be peaking during that (basing off my previous pregnancy). Talk to your doctor and then go from there! I am very anxious to hear a doctors opinion on all of this at my first appointment...maybe I overreacted and just gave up a cruise 

I know that here, Health Canada is urging pregnant women (and women TTC) to avoid all travel to affected areas so I think you were right to cancel the cruise. Because sexual transmission is possible they are recommending that men with pregnant partners who travel to affected areas use condoms for the duration of pregnancy, too. 

Recs are likely different for the U.S. but that's the messaging here. 

EmmieAnn22

@AlexLindzz I don't think you over reacted at all on the cruise.  I had my first appointment last week and my office's  recommendations were no travel to places with Zika for either partner for the duration of the pregnancy.

 I went on a cruise right after I conceived and will be getting a blood test Wednesday to check for the virus.  I really didn't think I had conceived this cycle so I thought I was in the clear.  Not one of my better decisions.

MrsDho11

KilgraveMadeMeDoIt said:

AlexLindzz said:

@agnesela We were scheduled to take a cruise to Mexico in April and had to cancel after I found out I was pregnant. For me, I think that I wouldn't be able to enjoy my vacation because I'd be worried the whole time. Also, my m/s would probably be peaking during that (basing off my previous pregnancy). Talk to your doctor and then go from there! I am very anxious to hear a doctors opinion on all of this at my first appointment...maybe I overreacted and just gave up a cruise 

I know that here, Health Canada is urging pregnant women (and women TTC) to avoid all travel to affected areas so I think you were right to cancel the cruise. Because sexual transmission is possible they are recommending that men with pregnant partners who travel to affected areas use condoms for the duration of pregnancy, too. 

Recs are likely different for the U.S. but that's the messaging here. 

I asked my OB/GYN about this because H went to a Zika zone before we were TTC this cycle.  She said the one case of sexual transmission (and I don't think I've heard of more) was due to blood in the semen, which is uncommon and wasn't something to be concerned about.  So I guess I'm saying, everyone just read, talk to your docs, and do your best to hobble those into an informed decision that you are comfortable with.

Texafornian

This freaks me out being that I'm in Houston. I also do outdoor workouts twice a week....and I'm like a mosquito magnet. They loooooove me. 
Im curious as to a good pregnancy safe mosquito repellant too...I know they rec Picaridin and Deet but pretty sure those aren't pregnancy safe. 

earichar23

@Texafornian I'm in Alabama.  The FDA claims both are pregnancy safe but of course there are no studies to back that up except on mice which actually did show signs of birth defects when doused with DEET which doesn't really mimic how we use it. Everything I've read talks about weighing the dangers and following directions. Personally I will use DEET or Picardin every time I'm out of the house for an extended period of time but will try to limit that to less than once a day. I have a treadmill and my DH is taking over toddler outside play time. 

AlexLindzz

Texafornian said:

This freaks me out being that I'm in Houston. I also do outdoor workouts twice a week....and I'm like a mosquito magnet. They loooooove me. 
Im curious as to a good pregnancy safe mosquito repellant too...I know they rec Picaridin and Deet but pretty sure those aren't pregnancy safe. 

I was reading that the CDC  claims Deet was safe for pregnant women...but I would hate to bathe in chemicals every day being pregnant. 

2undertwo2bee

I ordered the sawyers picardin one. It said it was safe. Luckily we'll be out of first trimester by the time summer comes. They said first tri was the most critical to prevent it. 

aquasocks

I live in a very high-mosquito area, and my mom would always bathe us in Avon Skin So Soft bath oil (careful!! Will make tub VERY slippery) when they were biting. They also have a lotion with SPF. Even if you aren't normally a bug-magnet, pregnancy hormones make you more attractive to bugs. It smells good and does make your skin soooo soft. I highly recommend it!!

TrulyBlessed22

Ladies, I too really want to believe the 1st tri thing and I hate to be a Debbie downer but if I didn't say anything I'd feel bad withholding info.  I read a couple of articles from scientists that have done several studies following pregnant women with Zika in all stages of pregnancy and unfortunately they are no longer sure it gets better after the 1st tri.  They do believe the chance of the baby getting microcephaly is reduced but they are finding that the virus can have negative effects on the placenta causing complications prior to birth.  The unfortunate thing is that they simply aren't sure to what extent this virus can impact pregnant women and so its my personal opinion that it's best to exercise caution at all stages of the pregnancy.  I had plans to visit my Father this summer (post 1st tri) in PR and have decided against it.  I'm giving him the option to fly to me instead, at my expense, if he'd like. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/zika-virus-outbreak/study-finds-zika-damages-babies-all-stages-pregnancy-n532086

Edit: to include article 

DunkinDecaf

Yeah I have friends who've canceled trips because of Zika who aren't TTC or even in relationships, because they say if you get it to put off having children for five years afterwards, and five years is a long time! You never know what you might want a few years down the line.

chloe97

H and I were in Mexico in January. We were TTC at the time and I went overboard and bought all of the bug spray. Lemon eucalyptus oil from Repel was incredibly effective and I didn't get a single bite the 5 days we were there. I'm not sure it's 100% natural, but certainly seems a lot more natural than DEET. Here's a link to the Consumer Reports article  https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/mobile/ratings/products/category/34772.htm

chloe97

SRose109 said:

Yeah I have friends who've canceled trips because of Zika who aren't TTC or even in relationships, because they say if you get it to put off having children for five years afterwards, and five years is a long time! You never know what you might want a few years down the line.

Curious where you read this? Everything I read and my doctor said that its out of your system a month after exposure.

KilgraveMadeMeDoIt

chloe97 said:

H and I were in Mexico in January. We were TTC at the time and I went overboard and bought all of the bug spray. Lemon eucalyptus oil from Repel was incredibly effective and I didn't get a single bite the 5 days we were there. I'm not sure it's 100% natural, but certainly seems a lot more natural than DEET. Here's a link to the Consumer Reports article  https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/mobile/ratings/products/category/34772.htm

It is important to remember that "natural" is completely meaningless from a safety perspective. Something being marketed as "natural" does not mean it is safer or more effective than a man-made alternative.

mtvkv5

Was scheduled to go to Mexico in late August for my BIL's wedding, but I guess that is now going to be off. But DH is best man so he has to go. So I guess if we are still doing it then he will have to use condoms? He will definitely be bug spraying it up.

DunkinDecaf

@chloe97 I didn't read it, I heard it from a friend. She's a sharp tack though, I tend to believe her. I'll ask her where she got that number from.

hellopartyof5

My best friends bachelorette party is in New Orleans in July. She's going to kill me. 

kns1988

I have a trip to Florida planned over Memorial Day to visit my grandparents. They live on the beach an hour north of West Palm Beach, and I've never seen a mosquito there. Maybe it's only a problem in the marshy areas? I'll still be visiting, but I'll avoid being out at dusk just in case. 

MrsDho11

@mtvkv5 - based on what my doc told me, no. But when the time comes, just ask your OB!

aquasocks

nauticallife said:

My best friends bachelorette party is in New Orleans in July. She's going to kill me. 

Are you skipping? I live in New Orleans. I'm not overly worried. In the city the bugs aren't too bad. If you go on a swamp tour I would wear bug spray. 

TrulyBlessed22

@kns1988 not suggesting you shouldn't go at all but note that these mosquitos aren't dusk biters...they feed during the day.  Mid morning and late afternoon is their peak time (though they can bite at anytime).  Anyway, again not suggesting you don't go just wanted you to be aware they don't just bite at dusk and night like most mosquitos. Unfortunately that's partially what's responsible for the large spread...the fact that they prefer to be out during the day <sigh>

rencontrezmoi

@ewiltz1921 - I also bought the sawyer's with 20% picaridin. If anyone else is interested, it's the top bug spray recommended to protect against zika according to consumer reports
https://www.consumerreports.org/insect-repellents/mosquito-repellents-that-best-protect-against-zika/

kns1988

Thanks, @TrulyBlessed22, that's good to know. I'll be spending most of my time indoors with 90-year-olds, so I'm not too worried about it, but it's good to know to be cautious during the day.

Texafornian

I brought up my concern with my doc and she said they've yet to get a case of Zika caused from a mosquito bite in the state of Texas...all cases have been transmitted either sexually or from being bitten abroad. She also said that Deet was totally fine (although I'd still be wary and maybe spray it on my clothes rather than my skin!) and that I shouldn't worry about heading outdoors.  Just don't travel to Zika countries or have sex with my hubby if he travels to said countries.

EmmieAnn22

So I just met with a specialist to discuss my risk for Zika infection.  I traveled to a few countries on a cruise with active Zika outbreaks right when I conceived.  
The biggest thing I learned was that they really don't know anything.  No studies have been completed yet to give them any information.  They don't know if getting it in the first trimester puts you at anymore risk than the 3rd trimester.  They don't know if the virus can linger in your system and cause issues.  They have no real answers.  Not very comforting.  
Also, my hospital system has had a handful of cases of at risk women like myself.  The CDC has yet to get anyone's results back to the hospital. So in short.  Nothing is really known and the government isn't doing a great job processing blood work to get answers any faster. 
The only thing I they know is that the mosquitos that are the ones transferring it are ones that live primarily in homes not outside.  I know not very comforting either.  

Texafornian

@EmmieAnn22 gah...I just swatted a mosquito indoors last night while I was eating dinner!

EmmieAnn22

@Texafornian Hope I didn't scare you.  As of now it's only specific mosquitos that live in the tropics that are transferring Zika.  

Thewizardofrhythm

I cancelled my trip to Mexico before I knew I was pregnant (early February) and my doctor told me that if we were trying to conceive before July, not to go to areas in the CDC warning zone.

evilgreencows5

I just asked my Ob on Thursday and he said that they are discouraging travel south of the United States but st this time, do not see a problem traveling within the country. There has been no known transmissions through mosquitos in the US. He did suggest bug spray and being more aware like staying in after dusk and avoiding swamps. 

kg8006

Texafornian said:

I brought up my concern with my doc and she said they've yet to get a case of Zika caused from a mosquito bite in the state of Texas...all cases have been transmitted either sexually or from being bitten abroad. She also said that Deet was totally fine (although I'd still be wary and maybe spray it on my clothes rather than my skin!) and that I shouldn't worry about heading outdoors.  Just don't travel to Zika countries or have sex with my hubby if he travels to said countries.

I am glad nothing has been found in Texas yet. I live in NC but my entire family is in Texas. I hate the thought of not coming down to visit during this pregnancy! Since Texas is so far down and close to Mexico, I've been so paranoid! 

DunkinDecaf

chloe97 said:

SRose109 said:

Yeah I have friends who've canceled trips because of Zika who aren't TTC or even in relationships, because they say if you get it to put off having children for five years afterwards, and five years is a long time! You never know what you might want a few years down the line.

Curious where you read this? Everything I read and my doctor said that its out of your system a month after exposure.

Update: I'm full of crap. Ignore me. Your number is correct.

HeatherC527

This post is for all the Florida bumpies. 

Florida reports 1st locally transmitted cases of Zika

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/zika-florida-1.3700481

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