So...paternity predictions? Please give your opinion! — The Bump
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So...paternity predictions? Please give your opinion!

I know the only way to tell 100% is a test, but until then we'd like to know what you guys think. You're well versed in ultrasounds and the like, right?

Someone I know had her dating ultrasound on March 25, and it dated the pregnancy at 13 weeks and 1 day along with a due date of Sept. 29.

She last had sex with this guy on Dec. 21. She's not sure if she stopped before that, but definitely no later.

So, what do you think the chances are that he's the father? Remember that ultrasounds at 13 weeks can be off 8 days (as far as I know, what have you read?), and sperm can be found in the woman's system for up to 7 days. 

Her current due date gives her a conception date of around Jan. 6th so if that's accurate it's impossible, but we want to consider worse case scenario with ultrasound being off the maximum days and sperm living 7 days as well.

Your opinions are greatly appreciated!


Re: So...paternity predictions? Please give your opinion!

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  • edited July 2015
    I have complete anonymity here, so why would I lie and say it's a friend? If it were me, I'd say it was me.

    She had sex with three guys in December. With the first guy she stopped around the beginning of Dec. so he's out 100%. The second guy she stopped on or before the 21st, and that's the guy I'm talking about.

    The third guy she had sex with well after the 21st and into January.

    Obviously the 3rd guy is the most likely by a lot, but I'm asking how likely you find the second guy just by himself, regardless of the others.

    Her due date and dating ultrasound gives a conception date of about Jan. 6th, so how likely is it that sex from Dec. 21 could cause that pregnancy, considering 13 week ultrasounds can be off 8 days either direction and sperm can live 7 days? I know you aren't wizards with crystal balls, just asking for what you think the likelihood is.

    And am I right that 13 week ultrasounds can be 8 days off? And that sperm can live 7 days?
  • It's important because the Dec. 21st guy was abusive and is now out of her life. It's been making her anxious since January.

    6-8 week ultrasounds are fairly accurate, but what about 13 weeks?

    Again, why would I say it's for a friend when all I am is a screen name to you? I know these details because she told me. 

  • She just have to deal with it... who the father is, is not important as long as she love the child... who needs a father and a ultrasound is never wrong...... Hope she stop stress and be happy is most important.. And as a friend stand by her all the best
  • Ultrasounds can be off though. By several days. Just asking the likelihood of a 13 week ultrasound being off by more than a week, among other things.
  • Ask your doctor about the accuracy of a 13 week ultrasound

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    MagicMikkiChiccoBeanzKen122014
  • Her GP said they can be off 7 days, the ultrasound tech said 5 days, and her obgyn said 8 days.

    Most sources online say 3-5 to 7 days. Wondering what others here have been told.
  • edited July 2015
    My cousin requested those that are still on this thread to assign a percentage to the chance that you think the 1st guy has of being the father. She's number oriented, so I said I'd ask.

    Thanks.
  • Jizzill said:
    FF should really be more specific.  In addition to the Insemination/Sex field, there should be an option for 'Partner'.  The developers could then add a feature to chart the partners alongside your temperatures and CM.   

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  • Jizzill said:

    FF should really be more specific.  In addition to the Insemination/Sex field, there should be an option for 'Partner'.  The developers could then add a feature to chart the partners alongside your temperatures and CM.   

    They could call it the Samatha edition (from SITC just in case anyone doesn't get the reference).
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  • My cousin requested those that are still on this thread to assign a percentage to the chance that you think the 1st guy has of being the father. She's number oriented, so I said I'd ask.


    Thanks.
    Numbers oriented? Assign a percentage? I'm 99.99% sure this is MUD.

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  • Contender #3 would be Orange.

    Hilarious!!!
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    Moved to IUIs October 2014

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  • MagicMikkiMagicMikki member
    edited July 2015
    @Everycol0r did all the math for youIMeanForYourFriend, all the math you could have done yourself. What more do you need? If date of conception is on or around January 6, the dude she boned on December 21st is NOT the guy, especially considering she was boning some other dude well into January. Come on, now. Isn't that guy so much more likely??

    That being said, I feel less sorry for youIMeanYourFriend and more sorry for that dude. And for all the other dudes who were sharing her vag. Yikes.
    TTC since March 2013

    HSG: Sept 2014, clear tubes

    Dx: MFI - Low motility, morph, count (Aug. 2014); Hypothyroidism (May 2015)

    Moved to IUIs October 2014

    IUI #1 w/ injections:  Nov 2014- BFN

    IUI #2 w/ injections:  Jan 2015- BFN

    IUI #3.1 w/ injections:  Feb. 2015, cancelled due to cysts- 10 days BCP

    IUI #3.2 w/ injections:  Feb/March 2015- BFN

    IUI #4 w/ 100mg Clomid +  Injections:  August 2015- BFN

    IUI #5 w/ 5mg Femara + Injections:  September 2015- BFN

    IUI #6 w/ 5mg Femara + Injections:  October 2015 - Cancelled due low response

    Moved to IVF May 2016 

    Retrieved 18 eggs on 05/27/2016, 13 were ICSI'd, 9 made it to day-five transfer

    Transferred 2 beautiful day-five embryos on 06/01/2016, froze 7

    BFP 4dp5dt on 06/05/2016!  Line continued to darken beautifully!

    EDD:  February 17, 2017

    Beta #1:  92

    Beta #2:  305 

    Ultrasound #1 - one baby!

    Ultrasound #2 - saw heartbeat!


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    Everycol0rMarchmellow2Mother0fDragonsfhopefaithlove1
  • If it had been me, I would have gotten an abortion.

    If you'd read through the first post again, you'll see I was factoring in more than just the conception date. I was asking how off ultrasounds could be, since if it's more than 8 days, that muddies the waters quite a bit since sperm can live 7 days (some say 5, but I was going with worst case scenario).

    So I wasn't asking if 16 day old sperm could cause a pregnancy. I figured people might know how accurate 13 week ultrasounds might be on a pregnancy web site. If it's 3 or 5 days, the guy can't be the dad. 8 days or more? Could very well be the guy.
  • Is your friend trying to avoid doing a paternity test at all? Because that is clearly the only way to know.  And she should be honest with the trifecta she was banging and letting them know that they could potentially be the father.  


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    DrillSergeantCat
  • There will be a DNA test...as I have said several times. And there's only two guys who can be the father. The 1st guy can't unless his sperm can survive a month.
  • This thread made my day! :))

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