The Odds of NOT having an Early Miscarriage

ecwk · December 2017

Hi ladies,

This post was a huge comfort back when I was in my previous BMB. All credit goes to @l4rk for the following:

Hello Ladies!

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies!

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

By the way, anyone in this January 2016 club already has a better chance of NOT having a miscarriage than having one... The numbers are on your side!

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

leahcimmichael · December 2017

OMG!!! Thank you for this! PGAL brain is no joke. Seeing that I’m more likely than not to have a successful pregnancy is so reassuring (for at least a few minutes ‘til the anxiety starts creeping back...)

westphilly · December 2017

I remember this from my last BMB too! Thank you SO much for re-posting.

alinafed · December 2017

This is so nice to see. However .... *TW* .... when I did have one I was in the 1% or less I guess, because baby stopped growing around 10 weeks, so it just makes me not confident that I won't be in the minority again. Although I have had two healthy babies since. I hate how PGAL brain never fully goes away.

pghctwife · December 2017

@alinafed yep all my pgal brain sees is how I still ‘defied’ the odds. Twice.

kiki75 · December 2017

alinafed said:

This is so nice to see. However .... *TW* .... when I did have one I was in the 1% or less I guess, because baby stopped growing around 10 weeks, so it just makes me not confident that I won't be in the minority again. Although I have had two healthy babies since. I hate how PGAL brain never fully goes away.

pghctwife said:

@alinafed yep all my pgal brain sees is how I still ‘defied’ the odds. Twice.

*Lurker*

For anyone who finds the OP really comforting and needs it to stay sane, stop reading.

For the rest...

These charts are misleading. These are your odds, provided the embryo/fetus has developed properly up to that point. *TW* I felt the same when I thought I had been in the 2% when I had a MMC. I felt so betrayed. But I asked my doctor about that specifically and that's when she told me that's only if everything has been okay up to then. So when my embryo stopped developing, I was in something more like the 13%.

derbysquirrel · December 2017

Bumping because this thread helps me keep my sanity. Thanks for putting this together!

laurad75 · December 2017

@derbysquirrel I literally look at this every day.

7425cait · December 2017

Thank you so much for posting this

bridgetkoch · December 2017

This just made me feel about a million times better, thank you!

sporbycheck · December 2017

This is currently my favorite website on the internet -- plug in how far along you are and a few other details and then click "Reassure me" as many times as you want. It shows you miscarriage statistics from a hopeful perspective. I love it

laurad75 · December 2017

Question (and excuse to bump this thread to the top where I can find it easily)...If at 9w1d and on there is a 98% chance of a live birth does that mean the '2nd trimester' rule is arbitrary? Are my chances at 12 weeks just as good as 9w4d or whatever?

pghctwife · December 2017

@laurad75 not exactly. Read the spoiler above.

It doesn’t account for, for example, a missed miscarriage where something happened at 6w and you didn’t know until 9.

laurad75 · December 2017

@pghctwife that makes sense. thank you.

meeks2020 · December 2017

This is reassuring, I'm glad I saw it today! Since my first appointment isn't until 10 weeks I am so scared of a mmc. I have no reasoning besides nerves so I needed to see this

hardlyhannah · January 2018

Bump for anyone who might need a reminder

rocknrrollmom · January 2018

meeks2020 said:

This is reassuring, I'm glad I saw it today! Since my first appointment isn't until 10 weeks I am so scared of a mmc. I have no reasoning besides nerves so I needed to see this

Same! Everytime my symptoms alleviate slightly, I think something is wrong.

Thanks for for posting positivity!!

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