The Odds of NOT having an Early Miscarriage — The Bump
August 2018 Moms

The Odds of NOT having an Early Miscarriage

Hi ladies,

This post was a huge comfort back when I was in my previous BMB. All credit goes to @l4rk for the following: 

Hello Ladies!

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies! 

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

By the way, anyone in this January 2016 club already has a better chance of NOT having a miscarriage than having one... The numbers are on your side! 

ProgressProbability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D67%
3W, 1D67.10%
3W, 2D67.40%
3W, 3D68%
3W, 4D68.70%
3W, 5D69.70%
3W, 6D70.80%
4W, 0D72%
4W, 1D73.50%
4W, 2D74.80%
4W, 3D76.40%
4W, 4D77.90%
4W, 5D79.50%
4W, 6D81.10%
5W, 0D82.70%
5W, 1D84.20%
5W, 2D85.60%
5W, 3D87%
5W, 4D88.30%
5W, 5D89.50%
5W, 6D90.60%
6W, 0D91.60%
6W, 1D92.50%
6W, 2D93.40%
6W, 3D94.10%
6W, 4D94.70%
6W, 5D95.30%
6W, 6D95.70%
7W, 0D96.10%
7W, 1D96.50%
7W, 2D96.80%
7W, 3D97%
7W, 4D97.20%
7W, 5D97.40%
7W, 6D97.50%
8W, 0D97.60%
8W, 1D97.70%
8W, 2D97.80%
8W, 3D97.80%
8W, 4D97.90%
8W, 5D97.90%
8W, 6D97.90%
9W, 0D97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)98%+

August '18 April Siggy Challenge: April Showers





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Re: The Odds of NOT having an Early Miscarriage

  • OMG!!! Thank you for this! PGAL brain is no joke. Seeing that I’m more likely than not to have a successful pregnancy is so reassuring (for at least a few minutes ‘til the anxiety starts creeping back...)
    Me: 34   DH: 36
    Married: 12/2016
    TTC #1: 8/2016
    MC: 11/2016 at 8w
    CP: 7/2017
    BFP: 11/2017
    EDD: 8/5/2018


    ecwktops-2
  • I remember this from my last BMB too! Thank you SO much for re-posting. 
    ecwk
  • @alinafed yep all my pgal brain sees is how I still ‘defied’ the odds. Twice. 






    11/18/16 missed m/c 9w1
    05/2017 cp
    08/03/17 no hb 8w

    SmashJamNAP1029
  • Bumping because this thread helps me keep my sanity. Thanks for putting this together!
    Me:32
    DH:45
    DSD: 20
    DSS: 18
    Team green baby due: Aug 6th, 2018

    Pregnancy Ticker
    ecwklalala2004dirtanddiamonds
  • @derbysquirrel I literally look at this every day.  
    BabyFruit Ticker

    TTC history in spoiler: 

    Me: 42
    DH: 41
    Married: 5/7/16
    TTC #1: May 2016
    IUI #1 10/31/16 - BFN
    IVF - ER #1 2/10 (3R, 3F, 1B for PGS - 0 viable for transfer)
    IVF - ER #2 3/24 (2R, 1F- 0 viable for transfer)
    IVF - ER #3 5/15 (1R- 0 viable for transfer)
    June 17: Starting the process for DE IVF
    Aug 17: Donor chosen! Anticipating a Nov cycle after testing is complete. 
    Nov 17: DE IVF ER 11/27 (35R, 19 F) Dec 2nd Transfer!
    Dec 12: BFP! EDD 8/20/18


    dirtanddiamonds
  • Thank you so much for posting this 
  • This just made me feel about a million times better, thank you! 
  • This is currently my favorite website on the internet -- plug in how far along you are and a few other details and then click "Reassure me" as many times as you want. It shows you miscarriage statistics from a hopeful perspective. I love it
    lalala2004jlo629
  • Question (and excuse to bump this thread to the top where I can find it easily)...If at 9w1d and on there is a 98% chance of a live birth does that mean the '2nd trimester' rule is arbitrary?  Are my chances at 12 weeks just as good as 9w4d or whatever?  
    BabyFruit Ticker

    TTC history in spoiler: 

    Me: 42
    DH: 41
    Married: 5/7/16
    TTC #1: May 2016
    IUI #1 10/31/16 - BFN
    IVF - ER #1 2/10 (3R, 3F, 1B for PGS - 0 viable for transfer)
    IVF - ER #2 3/24 (2R, 1F- 0 viable for transfer)
    IVF - ER #3 5/15 (1R- 0 viable for transfer)
    June 17: Starting the process for DE IVF
    Aug 17: Donor chosen! Anticipating a Nov cycle after testing is complete. 
    Nov 17: DE IVF ER 11/27 (35R, 19 F) Dec 2nd Transfer!
    Dec 12: BFP! EDD 8/20/18




  • @laurad75 not exactly. Read the spoiler above. 

    It doesn’t account for, for example, a missed miscarriage where something happened at 6w and you didn’t know until 9. 




    11/18/16 missed m/c 9w1
    05/2017 cp
    08/03/17 no hb 8w

  • @pghctwife that makes sense.  thank you. 
    BabyFruit Ticker

    TTC history in spoiler: 

    Me: 42
    DH: 41
    Married: 5/7/16
    TTC #1: May 2016
    IUI #1 10/31/16 - BFN
    IVF - ER #1 2/10 (3R, 3F, 1B for PGS - 0 viable for transfer)
    IVF - ER #2 3/24 (2R, 1F- 0 viable for transfer)
    IVF - ER #3 5/15 (1R- 0 viable for transfer)
    June 17: Starting the process for DE IVF
    Aug 17: Donor chosen! Anticipating a Nov cycle after testing is complete. 
    Nov 17: DE IVF ER 11/27 (35R, 19 F) Dec 2nd Transfer!
    Dec 12: BFP! EDD 8/20/18


  • This is reassuring, I'm glad I saw it today! Since my first appointment isn't until 10 weeks I am so scared of a mmc.  I have no reasoning besides nerves so I needed to see this 


  • Bump for anyone who might need a reminder 

    August '18 March Siggy Challenge - You had ONE JOB

    Pregnancy Ticker


  • meeks2020 said:
    This is reassuring, I'm glad I saw it today! Since my first appointment isn't until 10 weeks I am so scared of a mmc.  I have no reasoning besides nerves so I needed to see this 
    Same! Everytime my symptoms alleviate slightly, I think something is wrong. 

    Thanks for for posting positivity!!
    Image result for april showers meme

    Hello from Detroit!


    idahomomtobe
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