@adirat@skilledsailor thanks for the speedy input! Just about to go to bed here and had given DH a small heart attack when I mentioned the pains (as he read the ectopic warning sheet from the RE) and his reaction freaked me out a bit I think! Going to be an even longer appointment with the RE tomorrow now lol - may as well get my money's worth!
@adirat spooky just read now your post on the IF thread. Fx that's all it is and yours isn't not a troublesome one!
Me 43 DH 45 Married 12/2016 TTC #1 since 04/2015 AMA, DOR (AMH 0.65, AFC 2-4) and autoimmune issues (RA, APS), low TSH, adenomyosis 7 retrievals, 3 transfers
Jun19 FET BFP, due date 7th March 2020, DD born Feb20
Sep17 IVF1 - 1ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN Nov17 IVF2 - 1ER, 0F Jan18 IVF3 - 3ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN Feb18 - second opinion and additional testing Apr18 IVF4 - cancelled (E2 too high) May/Jun18 IVF4 - 4ER, 0M, 1F, 1 frozen day 3 (not best quality) Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - 5 ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (not best quality) Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - 4ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (good quality) Aug/Sep18 IVF7 - cancelled (cyst) Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - 3ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen Day 3 (excellent quality) Oct18 IVF8 - Cancelled (cyst and too low TSH) Oct18-Jan19 bringing TSH under control Feb19 ERA and hysteroscopy Mar19 Investigation for fibroid and adenomyosis Apr19 adenomyosis confirmed, polyps removed Jun19 FET after 2 months Lupron, autoimmune protocol, transferred two day 3 frozen embryos
Sep17 - Pergoveris 10-17 Sep, Orgalutran 15-18 Sep, Ovitrelle 18 Sep, ER 20 Sep for 2 follies, 1 mature egg, fertilized, ET 1x 2d 4-cell embryo 22/09, 05/10 BFN Nov17 IVF2 - Pergoveris 2-14 Nov, Orgalutran 5-14 Nov, Ovitrelle 15 Nov, ER 17 Nov for 3 follies, 1 mature egg, did not fertilize Jan18 IVF3 - Pergoveris 30 Dec - 8 Jan, Orgalutran 5-8 Jan, Ovitrelle 9 Jan, ER 11 Jan 3 eggs, 2 mature, 1 fertilized, ET 1x 4d 12-cell embryo 15/01, 24/01 BFN May/Jun18 IVF4 - Rekovelle 25-29 May, Menogon 30May - 2Jun, Zomacton 25 27 29 31 May and 2Jun, Cetrotide 30May - 3Jun, Gonasi 3Jun, ER 5Jun 4 eggs, none mature, two matured overnight, 1 fertilized with ICSI, Frozen day 3 but not good quality Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - Rekovelle 21-24 June, Menogon 25Jun-3Jul, Puregon 4-5Jul, Zomacton 21 23 25 27 29 Jun, Cetrotide 25Jun-5Jul, Gonasi 6Jul, ER 8Jul 5 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 but not good quality Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - Rekovelle 26-29 Jul, Menogon 30Jul-7Aug, Buserelin 26Jul-7Aug, Zomacton 26 28 30 Jul 1 3 Aug, Gonasi 7Aug, ER 9Aug 4 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized (normal IVF), 2 frozen day 3 good quality Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - Menogon 19-30Sep, Buserelin 19-30Sep, Zomacton 19 21 23 25 27 Sep, Ovitrelle 1 Oct, ER 3 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 excellent quality
Fav Quote: The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return
Coming out of months of bump break / lurking for this...
@br0co1ii - try taking your temp today and turning it off like normal. Then instead of turning it on and waiting for recall, hold down the on button and see what shows up. Holding it down might be the way you see the last stored temp. I've had BBTs do it both ways.
Me: 28 | H: 29 Married: October 2014 TTC #1 March 2017 Dx: PCOS - March 2018 IUI #1: April 2018 BFN IUI #2: May 2018
@emmasemm I had a hemorrhagic ovarian cyst last year. I couldn't stand or sit down, I had to be up on all fours because of the pain, and the pain felt like it was coming from more from my cervix than ovary. There was no radiation to my shoulder. I think everyone experiences cyst pain differently... definitely ask your doc! In my experience, the cyst goes away on its own usually.
Ok...I'm not sure I understand my CH that I got this morning. How come they put O on CD 17? I thought it would have been CD20 (which is more normal for me).
@blackhottamales That is super weird. I would say CD20 as well. Do you have the right detector setting on? Maybe try switching to a new one to see if it moves your CH. I think last week some people said FF updated and was messing up their CH. Maybe that's what's happening here?
Thank you @br0co1ii@offtoneverland@lulu1180@adirat@josie12367!! I changed to FAM and it did move it to CD20. which sucks b/c then we didn't get any times in FW but i knew that before. I have to be more consistent with my CM and OPK's and hopefully it'll be better next month.
I'm stumped. I've been really bothered by the 20% statistic. We all know what I'm talking about it but in case you don't:
"You have about a 20% chance of conception each cycle you ovulate. It can take a normal, healthy couple up to 1 year to get pregnant"
This is listed in the read me first post with no source cited. Where did this statistic come from? How do they arrive at this number? I've been Googling "20% chance of conceiving each month statistic research" and the results that come back either blindly repeat this number with no study, no source cited, or say that statistic is garbage. I know this community is filled with so many smart women I'm hoping anyone can point me in the right direction.
The more I'm reading the more I'm disbelieving this number, and am failing to see the reason we tell each other this other then we just accept it, because it's in the read me first, without a source cited. I made a few arguments about this in the TWW today.
I don't know about anyone else here, but who feels stress every time they see the 20% quote? I know I do! I fully realize just because you dont like something doesn't make it not true. I'm just trying to understand where this number came from and why we keep blindly repeating it. Maybe it's not blindly, maybe I'm just not looking in the right place. The best I could do was an article that stated conception by math, that said you can find the probability of ANYTHING by this one formula.
Does anyone know what study this came from or what factors were included? I love science and learning. I love research which might be why I'm getting so riled up by this.
Does this all come down to how many sperm are able to reach the egg? I'm confused how that percentage wouldn't change by how many days/times you HIO while you're fertile? I'm genuinely interested in this because I've seen this number repeated time and time again but with no studies provided to back it up. I've seen poster write 20-25% and someone corrects them and says "actually it's 20%" - this kills me. Saying something over and over again doesn't make it true either. I think it's more complicated then that.
To recap my question - what EXACTLY is used to determine this famous 20% statistic.
I really appreciate any answers I can get. Btw I totally accept "I don't know" at least I wouldn't feel alone. I'm not trying to troll anyone. I'm really trying to get answers. I hope I did a good enough job conveying that. Although who knows over a mobile post.
Conception is most likely to occur in the first month of trying (about a 30% conception rate). The chance then falls steadily to about 5% by the end of the first year. Cumulative conception rates are around 75% after six months, 90% after a year, and 95% at two years. Subfertility is defined as a failure to conceive after one year of unprotected regular sexual intercourse. It is usually investigated after a year, although for some couples it may be appropriate to start investigations sooner. The likelihood of spontaneous conception is affected by age, previous pregnancy, duration of subfertility, timing of intercourse during the natural cycle, extremes of body mass, and pathology present. A reasonably high spontaneous pregnancy rate still occurs even after the first year of trying.
My biggest point to all of this, is that I think we should stop spreading this 20% statistic around like its gospel because its not and its really misleading. There are so many highs and lows already when TTC. Do we really need to have a statistic like we only have a 20% shot thrown in our face when it looks like its not even true! I am kind of disappointed in the Bump for putting it in the Read Me First thread without confirming if its even true.
@galactickates or @kwedsevs - I suggest picking up a copy of Expecting Better by Emily Oster. She lays out a lot of studies to figure out the truth to things like conception rates. I did a quick scan in the book and found this:
"I was told that the best strategy is to have sex every other day. If you did this, you’d be sure to capture at least one of the two best days, and the argument is that if you (or your partner) “save up” the sperm, then pregnancy chances are increased. On the other hand, saving them too much (say, skipping sex for more than ten days) tends to cause their effectiveness to diminish.3 This always sounded a little suspicious to me. I can easily believe that the amount of sperm is higher if you wait a day, but could it really be more than twice as high, which is what would have to be true for the every-other-day plan to beat out the every-day plan? It turns out my skepticism was somewhat well placed. The same paper that gave me information on the right day for sex also determined whether frequency of intercourse mattered. The researchers calculated the predicted chance of pregnancy for people who had sex once during the 6-day window leading up to ovulation, for those who had it twice, three times, and so on. The chances were almost identical. In other words, there seems to be no benefit to alternating sex days, having sex more frequently, or having sex less frequently. The crucial thing is to hit the day of ovulation or the day before."
She also has a chart for conception percentages based on when you have sex during the fertile window.
This will probably be huge, but I apologize. I'm on mobile.
Eta references: A. J. Wilcox, C. R. Weinberg, and D. D. Baird, “Timing of Sexual Intercourse in Relation to Ovulation—Effects on the Probability of Conception, Survival of the Pregnancy, and Sex of the Baby,” New England Journal of Medicine 333, no. 23 (1995): 1517–21. M. Jurema et al., “Effect of Ejaculatory Abstinence Period on the Pregnancy Rate after Intrauterine Insemination,” Fertility and Sterility 84, no. 3 (2005): 678–81.
My biggest point to all of this, is that I think we should stop spreading this 20% statistic around like its gospel because its not and its really misleading. There are so many highs and lows already when TTC. Do we really need to have a statistic like we only have a 20% shot thrown in our face when it looks like its not even true! I am kind of disappointed in the Bump for putting it in the Read Me First thread without confirming if its even true.
*** goes to look for soap box to stand on ***
1. TB does not care. Check out some of their appalling quizzes like "am I pregnant" some time. Don't be shocked.
2. Who are you? Are you and @galactickates the same person or are you just a person who posted today only to complain about this?
My biggest point to all of this, is that I think we should stop spreading this 20% statistic around like its gospel because its not and its really misleading. There are so many highs and lows already when TTC. Do we really need to have a statistic like we only have a 20% shot thrown in our face when it looks like its not even true! I am kind of disappointed in the Bump for putting it in the Read Me First thread without confirming if its even true.
*** goes to look for soap box to stand on ***
1. TB does not care. Check out some of their appalling quizzes like "am I pregnant" some time. Don't be shocked.
2. Who are you? Are you and @galactickates the same person or are you just a person who posted today only to complain about this?
**lovingly lurking still** They're the same person according to the TWW thread.
But yeah, The Bump didn't create that thread, the user base did.
Thanks Ladies. @izza2 I wondered why they said that about the every day vs every other day. My sister mentioned that today about the saving up sperm. I don't know why but I was under the impression that didn't matter.
Kwedsevs was my knot account. I didn't even check to see if my name was the same when my phone died.
@galactickates My RE said that with mild MFI, EOD is typically better than every day. I know there are some performance anxiety arguments for EOD, also, but that's definitely a personal decision.
I've never understood why that statistic gets thrown around, either. TCOYF is practically required reading, and it says this:
It is believed that the average fertile couple who does not chart has about a 25% chance of conceiving for any given cycle, depending on their age, frequency of intercourse, and numerous other factors. Of course, if couples are taught precisely when to time intercourse based on when the woman is most fertile, those odds can be greatly increased.
Since most of us chart, the odds should be higher. She also says that with well timed sex, if you haven't conceived in 6 months, you likely have something affecting fertility. However, the majority of couples will conceive within a year without treatment.
I'm not sure where the 20% comes from. I think it may be statistical probability as opposed to actual data.
@lalala2004 - the chart I shared above is from a study (also referenced), in other words: data. If you find the average of the percentages to get KU each day of the fertile window, it comes out to about 22%. So the 20% stat isn't entirely off, but it's also not an end all.
I started using the Glow app and stopped because it listed how likely you were to get pregnant on each fertile day and the highest it got was like 28%. It was so depressing!
@mrs_drc_rn - I feel like I waited until forever to able to start TTC and now that I got the green light from my DH I'm reading all of this information and I feel out before I've even really started. It's really depressing. I know plenty of people get KU even by the BMB intros every month. I obviously know it's possible. It just feels impossible right now.
@lalala2004 - the chart I shared above is from a study (also referenced), in other words: data. If you find the average of the percentages to get KU each day of the fertile window, it comes out to about 22%. So the 20% stat isn't entirely off, but it's also not an end all.
I get that it's data, but taking every day in the fertile window and averaging those days doesn't mean 20% for each cycle. I'm not a math expert, but I don't think statistics work that way.... You couldn't say that someone who has sex every day or every other day in the fertile window has the same chance as someone who only had sex one day in the fertile window, right? So it doesn't make sense to say everyone has a 20% chance, because it depends on their timing.
I'm surprised that with how far science has come in a lot of other areas, the science behind TTC is still sorely lacking! But I suppose it can't really be exact since bodies are weird and you would have to be monitored to know what's really going on in there. This is a very interesting conversation though with all the stats! @izza2 Thanks for the book recommendation!
Wow I missed the statistics conversation whilst I was sleeping! I agree that the info on 20% or 25% per month or anything in that area is most likely based on people not understanding statistics fully and oversimplifying good quality data/research into something that's not quite true at the end.
I talked with my professor on my EMBA course about it like this. Feel free to critique, it's oversimplified here though as don't want to totally bore you. If I weren't so personally invested it would make a great thesis topic.
Its like if you roll a dice twelve times (think one year of cycles) you aren't guaranteed to get a six on at least one of those rolls, but the chance each roll is 1/6 so long as the dice is fair (not weighted) and most people will get at least one SIX in the first twelve rolls. Sometimes you might get it on the first roll, but maybe it's takes 20 rolls to get your first six. Nothing wrong, just takes longer to get that random event. And the previous throws don't impact as each throw is independent of all others. But it also means if you don't know if the dice is "fair" or not then you have to roll a lot of times to get statistically significant results to prove the dice is weighted. Far more than 6 or 12 (rolls =months).
Swap dice for egg released at ovulation. Let's say at my age the average stats are 1/6 of eggs released to be euploid (normal). The closest I have is the dice analogy. So you could say faces 1-5 on the dice are aneuploid and 6 is euploid. But could I afford to "roll my dice" hundreds of times to "know" with a high degree of confidence (here I mean statistical confidence) if I have anything else affecting the odds? Not really as the game will end (no more eggs are left) before I can get there. So the medical profession has made a judgement on a lower confidence level to say "might not be only the egg in a given month" playing a role in this game, let's take a deeper look much sooner. And the shorter the remaining game is (i.e. The older you are) the more they "play it safe" to investigate sooner so conversely they have enough time to complete tests and treatment before the game ends. But it could really be there is nothing else wrong.
So so assuming I've got no other issues (great timing, tubes clear, no MFI, good lining etc) what is the likelihood that I haven't got KU after 30 cycle? This is pretty much the same as you throwing a dice 30 times and still not getting a six - absolutely possible (and if you were gambling on it how pissed would you be!) but will not happen very often. So have I just had "bad luck" or is something elsewhere wrong in another step? That's why we're doing IVF to eliminate some of the other steps (rather than investigate them) and filter it down to as close to the 1/6 if possible. This is also why for me we are prepared for a high number of IVF retrieval cycles as we only get 1-2 eggs each time, so at max halving the time to "win the game" (if we assume the eggs are released in the same order they would be naturally which actually is not the case but won't go into that now). If we could get 20 eggs per cycle imagine how much faster the game goes - and that's part of why IVF is the fastest way to get KU as you're basically taking 20 rolls for your single turn in the game!
For ladies in their 20s you could swap dice for coin toss. (If euploid rate was 50%) Could you toss a coin 12 times and never get heads - yep! How often does it happen in a large population, of course it happens, but most people will have gotten a head (BFP) by the end of 12 tosses.
Ok "half awake too excited to type at the speed my brain is running" post over! Not sure I really said what I meant to or not... NB actual data for coin tosses and dice throws available online but I'm on mobile so not linking/quoting
Me 43 DH 45 Married 12/2016 TTC #1 since 04/2015 AMA, DOR (AMH 0.65, AFC 2-4) and autoimmune issues (RA, APS), low TSH, adenomyosis 7 retrievals, 3 transfers
Jun19 FET BFP, due date 7th March 2020, DD born Feb20
Sep17 IVF1 - 1ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN Nov17 IVF2 - 1ER, 0F Jan18 IVF3 - 3ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN Feb18 - second opinion and additional testing Apr18 IVF4 - cancelled (E2 too high) May/Jun18 IVF4 - 4ER, 0M, 1F, 1 frozen day 3 (not best quality) Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - 5 ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (not best quality) Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - 4ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (good quality) Aug/Sep18 IVF7 - cancelled (cyst) Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - 3ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen Day 3 (excellent quality) Oct18 IVF8 - Cancelled (cyst and too low TSH) Oct18-Jan19 bringing TSH under control Feb19 ERA and hysteroscopy Mar19 Investigation for fibroid and adenomyosis Apr19 adenomyosis confirmed, polyps removed Jun19 FET after 2 months Lupron, autoimmune protocol, transferred two day 3 frozen embryos
Sep17 - Pergoveris 10-17 Sep, Orgalutran 15-18 Sep, Ovitrelle 18 Sep, ER 20 Sep for 2 follies, 1 mature egg, fertilized, ET 1x 2d 4-cell embryo 22/09, 05/10 BFN Nov17 IVF2 - Pergoveris 2-14 Nov, Orgalutran 5-14 Nov, Ovitrelle 15 Nov, ER 17 Nov for 3 follies, 1 mature egg, did not fertilize Jan18 IVF3 - Pergoveris 30 Dec - 8 Jan, Orgalutran 5-8 Jan, Ovitrelle 9 Jan, ER 11 Jan 3 eggs, 2 mature, 1 fertilized, ET 1x 4d 12-cell embryo 15/01, 24/01 BFN May/Jun18 IVF4 - Rekovelle 25-29 May, Menogon 30May - 2Jun, Zomacton 25 27 29 31 May and 2Jun, Cetrotide 30May - 3Jun, Gonasi 3Jun, ER 5Jun 4 eggs, none mature, two matured overnight, 1 fertilized with ICSI, Frozen day 3 but not good quality Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - Rekovelle 21-24 June, Menogon 25Jun-3Jul, Puregon 4-5Jul, Zomacton 21 23 25 27 29 Jun, Cetrotide 25Jun-5Jul, Gonasi 6Jul, ER 8Jul 5 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 but not good quality Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - Rekovelle 26-29 Jul, Menogon 30Jul-7Aug, Buserelin 26Jul-7Aug, Zomacton 26 28 30 Jul 1 3 Aug, Gonasi 7Aug, ER 9Aug 4 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized (normal IVF), 2 frozen day 3 good quality Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - Menogon 19-30Sep, Buserelin 19-30Sep, Zomacton 19 21 23 25 27 Sep, Ovitrelle 1 Oct, ER 3 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 excellent quality
Fav Quote: The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return
@emmasemm LOVE the explanation. I think sometimes it's much harder for us to just accept that our odds for any given month or cycle are relatively unknown, and that there are things you can do to increase those odds, but that there's no guarantee you're going to "roll that six."
@lalala2004 - I get that. However, in thwt same study they calculated the chances of getting pregnant if you had sex once, twice, however many days during the fertile window. And it didn't make a significant difference. Which obviously doesn't seem to make sense, but there are a lot of results from studies that don't seem to make sense and yet seem to be true.
Just to re share that specific section from what I shared above: "The same paper that gave me information on the right day for sex also determined whether frequency of intercourse mattered. The researchers calculated the predicted chance of pregnancy for people who had sex once during the 6-day window leading up to ovulation, for those who had it twice, three times, and so on. The chances were almost identical. In other words, there seems to be no benefit to alternating sex days, having sex more frequently, or having sex less frequently. The crucial thing is to hit the day of ovulation or the day before."
@emmasemm thanks you. This is basically what I was thinking too. Can I paraphrase and let me know if I'm wrong in my thinking: I flip a coin 6 time, by the 5th flip it's been all heads--so it makes us think the sixth flip has more chance of being tails--but it's not, I have the same 50% chance as the first flip.
@blackhottamales correct! For any individual flip of the coin you have a 50/50 chance of heads/tails - 5th one, 6th one, 600th one
Me 43 DH 45 Married 12/2016 TTC #1 since 04/2015 AMA, DOR (AMH 0.65, AFC 2-4) and autoimmune issues (RA, APS), low TSH, adenomyosis 7 retrievals, 3 transfers
Jun19 FET BFP, due date 7th March 2020, DD born Feb20
Sep17 IVF1 - 1ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN Nov17 IVF2 - 1ER, 0F Jan18 IVF3 - 3ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN Feb18 - second opinion and additional testing Apr18 IVF4 - cancelled (E2 too high) May/Jun18 IVF4 - 4ER, 0M, 1F, 1 frozen day 3 (not best quality) Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - 5 ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (not best quality) Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - 4ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (good quality) Aug/Sep18 IVF7 - cancelled (cyst) Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - 3ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen Day 3 (excellent quality) Oct18 IVF8 - Cancelled (cyst and too low TSH) Oct18-Jan19 bringing TSH under control Feb19 ERA and hysteroscopy Mar19 Investigation for fibroid and adenomyosis Apr19 adenomyosis confirmed, polyps removed Jun19 FET after 2 months Lupron, autoimmune protocol, transferred two day 3 frozen embryos
Sep17 - Pergoveris 10-17 Sep, Orgalutran 15-18 Sep, Ovitrelle 18 Sep, ER 20 Sep for 2 follies, 1 mature egg, fertilized, ET 1x 2d 4-cell embryo 22/09, 05/10 BFN Nov17 IVF2 - Pergoveris 2-14 Nov, Orgalutran 5-14 Nov, Ovitrelle 15 Nov, ER 17 Nov for 3 follies, 1 mature egg, did not fertilize Jan18 IVF3 - Pergoveris 30 Dec - 8 Jan, Orgalutran 5-8 Jan, Ovitrelle 9 Jan, ER 11 Jan 3 eggs, 2 mature, 1 fertilized, ET 1x 4d 12-cell embryo 15/01, 24/01 BFN May/Jun18 IVF4 - Rekovelle 25-29 May, Menogon 30May - 2Jun, Zomacton 25 27 29 31 May and 2Jun, Cetrotide 30May - 3Jun, Gonasi 3Jun, ER 5Jun 4 eggs, none mature, two matured overnight, 1 fertilized with ICSI, Frozen day 3 but not good quality Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - Rekovelle 21-24 June, Menogon 25Jun-3Jul, Puregon 4-5Jul, Zomacton 21 23 25 27 29 Jun, Cetrotide 25Jun-5Jul, Gonasi 6Jul, ER 8Jul 5 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 but not good quality Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - Rekovelle 26-29 Jul, Menogon 30Jul-7Aug, Buserelin 26Jul-7Aug, Zomacton 26 28 30 Jul 1 3 Aug, Gonasi 7Aug, ER 9Aug 4 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized (normal IVF), 2 frozen day 3 good quality Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - Menogon 19-30Sep, Buserelin 19-30Sep, Zomacton 19 21 23 25 27 Sep, Ovitrelle 1 Oct, ER 3 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 excellent quality
Fav Quote: The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return
@emmasemm that's an interesting way to look at it. I guess the problem is TTC isn't easy to pin down based on statistical probability since there are so many variables, most of which are out of our control!
@izza2 the reason I think it makes a difference is that study can only show the chances in retrospect. If you are having sex every day or every other day, you are less likely to miss your most fertile days, and therefore increase your chances. Since you can't really predict your ovulation in advance, you could end up thinking you have -1 or O timing but miss the mark, and then it's too late to increase your chances. So yes, you could have sex only once in the entire month and get pregnant, but that would be pure luck in hitting one of the more fertile days, does that make sense?
I remember some ladies doing acupuncture to help with TTC. I'm thinking of trying it to see if it can help with my long cycles (I'm sick of having a TWW for my period). Good idea or am I wasting time?
Me: 28 DH: 29 Married: 6/2016 TTC #1: 12/2016 Benched due to deployment- Off the bench 8/8/17!
Re: Chartstalk/Questions Week Of 10/9
@adirat spooky just read now your post on the IF thread. Fx that's all it is and yours isn't not a troublesome one!
Married 12/2016
TTC #1 since 04/2015
AMA, DOR (AMH 0.65, AFC 2-4) and autoimmune issues (RA, APS), low TSH, adenomyosis
7 retrievals, 3 transfers
Nov17 IVF2 - 1ER, 0F
Jan18 IVF3 - 3ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN
Feb18 - second opinion and additional testing
Apr18 IVF4 - cancelled (E2 too high)
May/Jun18 IVF4 - 4ER, 0M, 1F, 1 frozen day 3 (not best quality)
Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - 5 ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (not best quality)
Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - 4ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (good quality)
Aug/Sep18 IVF7 - cancelled (cyst)
Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - 3ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen Day 3 (excellent quality)
Oct18 IVF8 - Cancelled (cyst and too low TSH)
Oct18-Jan19 bringing TSH under control
Feb19 ERA and hysteroscopy
Mar19 Investigation for fibroid and adenomyosis
Apr19 adenomyosis confirmed, polyps removed
Jun19 FET after 2 months Lupron, autoimmune protocol, transferred two day 3 frozen embryos
Nov17 IVF2 - Pergoveris 2-14 Nov, Orgalutran 5-14 Nov, Ovitrelle 15 Nov, ER 17 Nov for 3 follies, 1 mature egg, did not fertilize
Jan18 IVF3 - Pergoveris 30 Dec - 8 Jan, Orgalutran 5-8 Jan, Ovitrelle 9 Jan, ER 11 Jan 3 eggs, 2 mature, 1 fertilized, ET 1x 4d 12-cell embryo 15/01, 24/01 BFN
May/Jun18 IVF4 - Rekovelle 25-29 May, Menogon 30May - 2Jun, Zomacton 25 27 29 31 May and 2Jun, Cetrotide 30May - 3Jun, Gonasi 3Jun, ER 5Jun 4 eggs, none mature, two matured overnight, 1 fertilized with ICSI, Frozen day 3 but not good quality
Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - Rekovelle 21-24 June, Menogon 25Jun-3Jul, Puregon 4-5Jul, Zomacton 21 23 25 27 29 Jun, Cetrotide 25Jun-5Jul, Gonasi 6Jul, ER 8Jul 5 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 but not good quality
Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - Rekovelle 26-29 Jul, Menogon 30Jul-7Aug, Buserelin 26Jul-7Aug, Zomacton 26 28 30 Jul 1 3 Aug, Gonasi 7Aug, ER 9Aug 4 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized (normal IVF), 2 frozen day 3 good quality
Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - Menogon 19-30Sep, Buserelin 19-30Sep, Zomacton 19 21 23 25 27 Sep, Ovitrelle 1 Oct, ER 3 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 excellent quality
Fav Quote: The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return
@br0co1ii - try taking your temp today and turning it off like normal. Then instead of turning it on and waiting for recall, hold down the on button and see what shows up. Holding it down might be the way you see the last stored temp. I've had BBTs do it both ways.
Me: 28 | H: 29
Married: October 2014
TTC #1 March 2017
Dx: PCOS - March 2018
IUI #1: April 2018 BFN
IUI #2: May 2018
ETA:
Not sure why it's dismissing the opk's though.
DD1: 8/2014
TTC #2: 6/2017
BFP 8/3/2017 | CP 8/4
BFP 10/16/2017 | CP 10/21
BFP 12/18/2017 | CP 12/28
BFP 2/15/2018 | EDD: November 2nd | It's a girl!
DD2: 10/2018
"It's time to try defying gravity."
Married 6/11/16
TTC Since 6/2016
12/2016 RE appt; 1/2017 SA & HSG results - all normal
3/2017 Dx Hyperprolactinemia; 5/2017 Prolactin levels normal; 8/2017 Low Ovarian Reserve
8/2017 TTA for personal reasons; 10/2017 NTNP; 12/2017 Re-start TTC
7/2018 Clomid+IUI
11/2018 Letrozole+TI
12/2018 Letrozole+IUI
2/2019 NTNP
5/2019 Stopping all TTC efforts; living Childfree
I changed to FAM and it did move it to CD20. which sucks b/c then we didn't get any times in FW but i knew that before. I have to be more consistent with my CM and OPK's and hopefully it'll be better next month.
I'm stumped. I've been really bothered by the 20% statistic. We all know what I'm talking about it but in case you don't:
"You have about a 20% chance of conception each cycle you ovulate. It can take a normal, healthy couple up to 1 year to get pregnant"
This is listed in the read me first post with no source cited. Where did this statistic come from? How do they arrive at this number? I've been Googling "20% chance of conceiving each month statistic research" and the results that come back either blindly repeat this number with no study, no source cited, or say that statistic is garbage. I know this community is filled with so many smart women I'm hoping anyone can point me in the right direction.
The more I'm reading the more I'm disbelieving this number, and am failing to see the reason we tell each other this other then we just accept it, because it's in the read me first, without a source cited. I made a few arguments about this in the TWW today.
I don't know about anyone else here, but who feels stress every time they see the 20% quote? I know I do! I fully realize just because you dont like something doesn't make it not true. I'm just trying to understand where this number came from and why we keep blindly repeating it. Maybe it's not blindly, maybe I'm just not looking in the right place. The best I could do was an article that stated conception by math, that said you can find the probability of ANYTHING by this one formula.
Does anyone know what study this came from or what factors were included? I love science and learning. I love research which might be why I'm getting so riled up by this.
Does this all come down to how many sperm are able to reach the egg? I'm confused how that percentage wouldn't change by how many days/times you HIO while you're fertile? I'm genuinely interested in this because I've seen this number repeated time and time again but with no studies provided to back it up. I've seen poster write 20-25% and someone corrects them and says "actually it's 20%" - this kills me. Saying something over and over again doesn't make it true either. I think it's more complicated then that.
To recap my question - what EXACTLY is used to determine this famous 20% statistic.
I really appreciate any answers I can get. Btw I totally accept "I don't know" at least I wouldn't feel alone. I'm not trying to troll anyone. I'm really trying to get answers. I hope I did a good enough job conveying that. Although who knows over a mobile post.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC188498/
Chance of spontaneous conception
Conception is most likely to occur in the first month of trying (about a 30% conception rate). The chance then falls steadily to about 5% by the end of the first year. Cumulative conception rates are around 75% after six months, 90% after a year, and 95% at two years. Subfertility is defined as a failure to conceive after one year of unprotected regular sexual intercourse. It is usually investigated after a year, although for some couples it may be appropriate to start investigations sooner. The likelihood of spontaneous conception is affected by age, previous pregnancy, duration of subfertility, timing of intercourse during the natural cycle, extremes of body mass, and pathology present. A reasonably high spontaneous pregnancy rate still occurs even after the first year of trying.
*** goes to look for soap box to stand on ***
@galactickates or @kwedsevs - I suggest picking up a copy of Expecting Better by Emily Oster. She lays out a lot of studies to figure out the truth to things like conception rates.
I did a quick scan in the book and found this:
"I was told that the best strategy is to have sex every other day. If you did this, you’d be sure to capture at least one of the two best days, and the argument is that if you (or your partner) “save up” the sperm, then pregnancy chances are increased. On the other hand, saving them too much (say, skipping sex for more than ten days) tends to cause their effectiveness to diminish.3 This always sounded a little suspicious to me. I can easily believe that the amount of sperm is higher if you wait a day, but could it really be more than twice as high, which is what would have to be true for the every-other-day plan to beat out the every-day plan? It turns out my skepticism was somewhat well placed. The same paper that gave me information on the right day for sex also determined whether frequency of intercourse mattered. The researchers calculated the predicted chance of pregnancy for people who had sex once during the 6-day window leading up to ovulation, for those who had it twice, three times, and so on. The chances were almost identical. In other words, there seems to be no benefit to alternating sex days, having sex more frequently, or having sex less frequently. The crucial thing is to hit the day of ovulation or the day before."
She also has a chart for conception percentages based on when you have sex during the fertile window.
This will probably be huge, but I apologize. I'm on mobile.
Eta references:
A. J. Wilcox, C. R. Weinberg, and D. D. Baird, “Timing of Sexual Intercourse in Relation to Ovulation—Effects on the Probability of Conception, Survival of the Pregnancy, and Sex of the Baby,” New England Journal of Medicine 333, no. 23 (1995): 1517–21.
M. Jurema et al., “Effect of Ejaculatory Abstinence Period on the Pregnancy Rate after Intrauterine Insemination,” Fertility and Sterility 84, no. 3 (2005): 678–81.
Me: 30 | DH: 34 | DSS: 14 | DS: 4
PG #2, EDD 10/12/2023
2. Who are you? Are you and @galactickates the same person or are you just a person who posted today only to complain about this?
They're the same person according to the TWW thread.
But yeah, The Bump didn't create that thread, the user base did.
Me: 30 | DH: 34 | DSS: 14 | DS: 4
PG #2, EDD 10/12/2023
Kwedsevs was my knot account. I didn't even check to see if my name was the same when my phone died.
Thanks @izza2
It is believed that the average fertile couple who does not chart has about a 25% chance of conceiving for any given cycle, depending on their age, frequency of intercourse, and numerous other factors. Of course, if couples are taught precisely when to time intercourse based on when the woman is most fertile, those odds can be greatly increased.
Since most of us chart, the odds should be higher. She also says that with well timed sex, if you haven't conceived in 6 months, you likely have something affecting fertility. However, the majority of couples will conceive within a year without treatment.
I'm not sure where the 20% comes from. I think it may be statistical probability as opposed to actual data.
If you find the average of the percentages to get KU each day of the fertile window, it comes out to about 22%. So the 20% stat isn't entirely off, but it's also not an end all.
Me: 30 | DH: 34 | DSS: 14 | DS: 4
PG #2, EDD 10/12/2023
I started using the Glow app and stopped because it listed how likely you were to get pregnant on each fertile day and the highest it got was like 28%. It was so depressing!
ETA: didn’t finish my post at first
https://expectingscience.com/2015/02/27/7-things-to-know-about-fertility-in-your-late-30s/
@izza2 Thanks for the book recommendation!
DD1: 8/2014
TTC #2: 6/2017
BFP 8/3/2017 | CP 8/4
BFP 10/16/2017 | CP 10/21
BFP 12/18/2017 | CP 12/28
BFP 2/15/2018 | EDD: November 2nd | It's a girl!
DD2: 10/2018
Wow I missed the statistics conversation whilst I was sleeping!
I agree that the info on 20% or 25% per month or anything in that area is most likely based on people not understanding statistics fully and oversimplifying good quality data/research into something that's not quite true at the end.
I talked with my professor on my EMBA course about it like this. Feel free to critique, it's oversimplified here though as don't want to totally bore you. If I weren't so personally invested it would make a great thesis topic.
Its like if you roll a dice twelve times (think one year of cycles) you aren't guaranteed to get a six on at least one of those rolls, but the chance each roll is 1/6 so long as the dice is fair (not weighted) and most people will get at least one SIX in the first twelve rolls. Sometimes you might get it on the first roll, but maybe it's takes 20 rolls to get your first six. Nothing wrong, just takes longer to get that random event. And the previous throws don't impact as each throw is independent of all others. But it also means if you don't know if the dice is "fair" or not then you have to roll a lot of times to get statistically significant results to prove the dice is weighted. Far more than 6 or 12 (rolls =months).
Swap dice for egg released at ovulation. Let's say at my age the average stats are 1/6 of eggs released to be euploid (normal). The closest I have is the dice analogy. So you could say faces 1-5 on the dice are aneuploid and 6 is euploid. But could I afford to "roll my dice" hundreds of times to "know" with a high degree of confidence (here I mean statistical confidence) if I have anything else affecting the odds? Not really as the game will end (no more eggs are left) before I can get there. So the medical profession has made a judgement on a lower confidence level to say "might not be only the egg in a given month" playing a role in this game, let's take a deeper look much sooner. And the shorter the remaining game is (i.e. The older you are) the more they "play it safe" to investigate sooner so conversely they have enough time to complete tests and treatment before the game ends. But it could really be there is nothing else wrong.
So so assuming I've got no other issues (great timing, tubes clear, no MFI, good lining etc) what is the likelihood that I haven't got KU after 30 cycle? This is pretty much the same as you throwing a dice 30 times and still not getting a six - absolutely possible (and if you were gambling on it how pissed would you be!) but will not happen very often. So have I just had "bad luck" or is something elsewhere wrong in another step? That's why we're doing IVF to eliminate some of the other steps (rather than investigate them) and filter it down to as close to the 1/6 if possible. This is also why for me we are prepared for a high number of IVF retrieval cycles as we only get 1-2 eggs each time, so at max halving the time to "win the game" (if we assume the eggs are released in the same order they would be naturally which actually is not the case but won't go into that now). If we could get 20 eggs per cycle imagine how much faster the game goes - and that's part of why IVF is the fastest way to get KU as you're basically taking 20 rolls for your single turn in the game!
For ladies in their 20s you could swap dice for coin toss. (If euploid rate was 50%) Could you toss a coin 12 times and never get heads - yep! How often does it happen in a large population, of course it happens, but most people will have gotten a head (BFP) by the end of 12 tosses.
Ok "half awake too excited to type at the speed my brain is running" post over! Not sure I really said what I meant to or not...
NB actual data for coin tosses and dice throws available online but I'm on mobile so not linking/quoting
Married 12/2016
TTC #1 since 04/2015
AMA, DOR (AMH 0.65, AFC 2-4) and autoimmune issues (RA, APS), low TSH, adenomyosis
7 retrievals, 3 transfers
Nov17 IVF2 - 1ER, 0F
Jan18 IVF3 - 3ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN
Feb18 - second opinion and additional testing
Apr18 IVF4 - cancelled (E2 too high)
May/Jun18 IVF4 - 4ER, 0M, 1F, 1 frozen day 3 (not best quality)
Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - 5 ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (not best quality)
Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - 4ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (good quality)
Aug/Sep18 IVF7 - cancelled (cyst)
Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - 3ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen Day 3 (excellent quality)
Oct18 IVF8 - Cancelled (cyst and too low TSH)
Oct18-Jan19 bringing TSH under control
Feb19 ERA and hysteroscopy
Mar19 Investigation for fibroid and adenomyosis
Apr19 adenomyosis confirmed, polyps removed
Jun19 FET after 2 months Lupron, autoimmune protocol, transferred two day 3 frozen embryos
Nov17 IVF2 - Pergoveris 2-14 Nov, Orgalutran 5-14 Nov, Ovitrelle 15 Nov, ER 17 Nov for 3 follies, 1 mature egg, did not fertilize
Jan18 IVF3 - Pergoveris 30 Dec - 8 Jan, Orgalutran 5-8 Jan, Ovitrelle 9 Jan, ER 11 Jan 3 eggs, 2 mature, 1 fertilized, ET 1x 4d 12-cell embryo 15/01, 24/01 BFN
May/Jun18 IVF4 - Rekovelle 25-29 May, Menogon 30May - 2Jun, Zomacton 25 27 29 31 May and 2Jun, Cetrotide 30May - 3Jun, Gonasi 3Jun, ER 5Jun 4 eggs, none mature, two matured overnight, 1 fertilized with ICSI, Frozen day 3 but not good quality
Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - Rekovelle 21-24 June, Menogon 25Jun-3Jul, Puregon 4-5Jul, Zomacton 21 23 25 27 29 Jun, Cetrotide 25Jun-5Jul, Gonasi 6Jul, ER 8Jul 5 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 but not good quality
Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - Rekovelle 26-29 Jul, Menogon 30Jul-7Aug, Buserelin 26Jul-7Aug, Zomacton 26 28 30 Jul 1 3 Aug, Gonasi 7Aug, ER 9Aug 4 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized (normal IVF), 2 frozen day 3 good quality
Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - Menogon 19-30Sep, Buserelin 19-30Sep, Zomacton 19 21 23 25 27 Sep, Ovitrelle 1 Oct, ER 3 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 excellent quality
Fav Quote: The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return
@lalala2004 - I get that. However, in thwt same study they calculated the chances of getting pregnant if you had sex once, twice, however many days during the fertile window. And it didn't make a significant difference.
Which obviously doesn't seem to make sense, but there are a lot of results from studies that don't seem to make sense and yet seem to be true.
Just to re share that specific section from what I shared above:
"The same paper that gave me information on the right day for sex also determined whether frequency of intercourse mattered. The researchers calculated the predicted chance of pregnancy for people who had sex once during the 6-day window leading up to ovulation, for those who had it twice, three times, and so on. The chances were almost identical. In other words, there seems to be no benefit to alternating sex days, having sex more frequently, or having sex less frequently. The crucial thing is to hit the day of ovulation or the day before."
Me: 30 | DH: 34 | DSS: 14 | DS: 4
PG #2, EDD 10/12/2023
Married 12/2016
TTC #1 since 04/2015
AMA, DOR (AMH 0.65, AFC 2-4) and autoimmune issues (RA, APS), low TSH, adenomyosis
7 retrievals, 3 transfers
Nov17 IVF2 - 1ER, 0F
Jan18 IVF3 - 3ER, 1F, 1ET, BFN
Feb18 - second opinion and additional testing
Apr18 IVF4 - cancelled (E2 too high)
May/Jun18 IVF4 - 4ER, 0M, 1F, 1 frozen day 3 (not best quality)
Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - 5 ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (not best quality)
Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - 4ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen day 3 (good quality)
Aug/Sep18 IVF7 - cancelled (cyst)
Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - 3ER, 3M, 2F, 2 frozen Day 3 (excellent quality)
Oct18 IVF8 - Cancelled (cyst and too low TSH)
Oct18-Jan19 bringing TSH under control
Feb19 ERA and hysteroscopy
Mar19 Investigation for fibroid and adenomyosis
Apr19 adenomyosis confirmed, polyps removed
Jun19 FET after 2 months Lupron, autoimmune protocol, transferred two day 3 frozen embryos
Nov17 IVF2 - Pergoveris 2-14 Nov, Orgalutran 5-14 Nov, Ovitrelle 15 Nov, ER 17 Nov for 3 follies, 1 mature egg, did not fertilize
Jan18 IVF3 - Pergoveris 30 Dec - 8 Jan, Orgalutran 5-8 Jan, Ovitrelle 9 Jan, ER 11 Jan 3 eggs, 2 mature, 1 fertilized, ET 1x 4d 12-cell embryo 15/01, 24/01 BFN
May/Jun18 IVF4 - Rekovelle 25-29 May, Menogon 30May - 2Jun, Zomacton 25 27 29 31 May and 2Jun, Cetrotide 30May - 3Jun, Gonasi 3Jun, ER 5Jun 4 eggs, none mature, two matured overnight, 1 fertilized with ICSI, Frozen day 3 but not good quality
Jun/Jul18 IVF5 - Rekovelle 21-24 June, Menogon 25Jun-3Jul, Puregon 4-5Jul, Zomacton 21 23 25 27 29 Jun, Cetrotide 25Jun-5Jul, Gonasi 6Jul, ER 8Jul 5 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 but not good quality
Jul/Aug18 IVF6 - Rekovelle 26-29 Jul, Menogon 30Jul-7Aug, Buserelin 26Jul-7Aug, Zomacton 26 28 30 Jul 1 3 Aug, Gonasi 7Aug, ER 9Aug 4 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized (normal IVF), 2 frozen day 3 good quality
Sep/Oct18 IVF7 - Menogon 19-30Sep, Buserelin 19-30Sep, Zomacton 19 21 23 25 27 Sep, Ovitrelle 1 Oct, ER 3 eggs, 3 mature, 2 fertilized with ICSI, 2 frozen day 3 excellent quality
Fav Quote: The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return
@izza2 the reason I think it makes a difference is that study can only show the chances in retrospect. If you are having sex every day or every other day, you are less likely to miss your most fertile days, and therefore increase your chances. Since you can't really predict your ovulation in advance, you could end up thinking you have -1 or O timing but miss the mark, and then it's too late to increase your chances. So yes, you could have sex only once in the entire month and get pregnant, but that would be pure luck in hitting one of the more fertile days, does that make sense?
Married: 6/2016
TTC #1: 12/2016
Benched due to deployment- Off the bench 8/8/17!