All the Wednesday Threads were deleted!

juliebleu · November 2016

Double post because editing about to add would be hard on my phone.

PM= peak mucus, TS= temp shift.

The letter to editor said in their experience using the following formula determined O accurately 90% of the time, plus or minus one day.

"The ovulation should be located in between PM symptom and TS:

If self-observed ovulation =PM =TS -1.

If PM is <TS -1, then the self-observed ovulation is PM +1.

If PM is >TS, then the self-observed ovulation is TS -1."

Edit to add math symbols that didn't copy over.

So take away could be there is a margin of error in this. But probably no more that 1 day either way. So when we think of timing, we may want to bank on that and time sex a bit after temp rise just in case. It can't hurt, right?

lulu1180 · November 2016

Thank you for all that information @DsMom!

dragonfly87-2 · November 2016

@DsMom that was a lot of info and I didn't understand half of it, but thanks for sharing lol.

juliebleu · November 2016

Pretty much: don't worry about it! Trust FF software but know it likely has a +/- 1 day margin of error and modify your behaviors accordingly

[Deleted User] · November 2016

@DsMom Cool! as someone who was temping and then also trained in Creighton method, I found this to be true for me, too:

<div class="Quote"> <span>I find it interesting that in their study mucus tended to predict late and bbt early?!?

Eta

</span>The letter to editor said in their experience using the following formula determined O accurately 90% of the time, plus or minus one day.

<div><div><div><p>"The ovulation should be located in between PM symptom and TS: </p><p>If self-observed ovulation =PM =TS -1. </p><p>If PM is <TS -1, then the self-observed ovulation is PM +1. </p><p>If PM is >TS, then the self-observed ovulation is TS -1."</p></div></div></div>
</div>They were usually a day off from one another, and I felt like most accurate was likely splitting the difference, ie overnight or whatever ;)

What its saying is if your last day of clear, syretchy, lubricative CM is before the temp shift, count ovulation as the following day (PM+1 = TS-1)

If your last day of clear, stretchy, lubricative mucus is after your temp shift, O is likely to be the day before, rather than the last day of peak mucus (PM-1 = TS+1) More or less. ;)

But yes, definitely go ahead and use 2-3 days after O for ttc sex because of that exact margin of error in practically any method.

linzrunz · November 2016

Just creeping in to say omg @virginiaham Hi!!!!!!!

virginiaham · November 2016

@linzrunz heyyyyy!

adirat · November 2016

@DsMom Thank you! I was going to look into the study for just the same methodology concerns and I agree with all your critiques. I actually found the findings intriguing for me personally since my CM tends to continue 1-2 days after temp shift, but I don't think it in any way means that quality charting through BBT and CM (and OPKs for good measure) should not be trusted.

Dear universe, it would be great if you could start increasing the n on your fertility studies! Sincerely, adirat.