The odds of NOT having an early miscarriage — The Bump
July 2017 Moms

The odds of NOT having an early miscarriage

In my January 2016 birth month group, @l4rk posted this shortly after we all started getting our BFPs and were therefore feeling anxious about potential loss. It was helpful to me see these numbers in black and white, so I'm copying her post word for word in hopes that it brings some peace of mind to my new July '17 buds.

Hello Ladies!

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies! 

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

By the way, anyone in this January 2016 club already has a better chance of NOT having a miscarriage than having one... The numbers are on your side! 

ProgressProbability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D67%
3W, 1D67.10%
3W, 2D67.40%
3W, 3D68%
3W, 4D68.70%
3W, 5D69.70%
3W, 6D70.80%
4W, 0D72%
4W, 1D73.50%
4W, 2D74.80%
4W, 3D76.40%
4W, 4D77.90%
4W, 5D79.50%
4W, 6D81.10%
5W, 0D82.70%
5W, 1D84.20%
5W, 2D85.60%
5W, 3D87%
5W, 4D88.30%
5W, 5D89.50%
5W, 6D90.60%
6W, 0D91.60%
6W, 1D92.50%
6W, 2D93.40%
6W, 3D94.10%
6W, 4D94.70%
6W, 5D95.30%
6W, 6D95.70%
7W, 0D96.10%
7W, 1D96.50%
7W, 2D96.80%
7W, 3D97%
7W, 4D97.20%
7W, 5D97.40%
7W, 6D97.50%
8W, 0D97.60%
8W, 1D97.70%
8W, 2D97.80%
8W, 3D97.80%
8W, 4D97.90%
8W, 5D97.90%
8W, 6D97.90%
9W, 0D97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)98%+
pepper16-2[Deleted User]kat0607star_beaglepeachy13thatcmamanillabarDcwtadaglitterfish-2cheriep3cait32konakaibel194goldbangleCynth0104babydance-2SaphireSweetie88ladybug0088Bonbonpawstokesm21gigemagskrys-2splashmountainSpongeWorthyamaireb252Knottie29116457babyn7707Knottie1467476371cmd723-zcutiebugg-2pretzel2plus1BabyClarencemama2stepmamaBarefootandPurplekmelton811shelbyaventnerissa-2klkriegACharnellemj8215hqinmdThePeckssparrowmomma24tsarina-2Blopez326aarabowlSparkyOneBoTor091314yellow1daisyOperaSingerMommyvirginiaunicorn11crosenbergWorkinWeezelPixieMoxie

Re: The odds of NOT having an early miscarriage

  • @mamadcb This is amazing - thank you so much for sharing it!! 
    Me: 28 I MH: 27
    Married August 2016
    TTC #1 September 2016
    BFP 10/31/16
    EDD 7/16/17
    BabyFruit Ticker
    SaphireSweetie88
  • @pepper16 this made me cry. Thank you. I could just hug you right now!
    [spoiler]
    DSS 03/2006
    DD 07/2017
    DS EDD: 1/30/19
    [/spoiler]
    SaphireSweetie88ankanyo
  • Loading the player...
  • Oh thank you so much @mamadcb. This has made me feel so much better!
    Me: 29 DH:31
    Friends: 6/2007

    Dating: 2/2012
    Married: 5/2015
    Member of BMB 7/2017

    DD: 6/27/2017


    SaphireSweetie88virginiaunicorn11
  • wow, this rocks. Thank you. 
    Me: 33 DH: 34
    Married: Oct 2015
    TTC #1: Sept 2016
    BFP: 10/19/16 ~ blighted ovum ~ D&C 11/23/16
    BFP: 3/24/17   <3  DD1 born 12/2/17
    TTC #2: July 2018
    BFP: 8/26/18 <3  DD2 born 5/16/19



    SaphireSweetie88
  • Thanks so much for posting this!!!
    SaphireSweetie88
  • it is nice to try to look at it from this perspective :)
    BabyGaga

    BabyGaga
    SaphireSweetie88
  • Thanks for sharing this! This is my first time getting this far, so just wondering... it looks like it steadies out at 9 weeks, why is it then that everyone says wait until 12 weeks to share for risk of miscarriage? Also, does anyone know how PGD effects these rates?
    SaphireSweetie88virginiaunicorn11
  • This is wonderful and made me tear up. I MCd in August at 8 wks and I'm very anxious about it happening again. This is such a ppositive spin. Thanks for sharing!!
    DcwtadaKrisitethatcmaSaphireSweetie88
  • Thanks for this @mamadcb ;
    thatcmaSaphireSweetie88
  • Thank you so much for posting!
    thatcmaSaphireSweetie88
  • Thank you! This makes me feel bette
    thatcmaSaphireSweetie88
  • Thank you! We had this in our May 2014 BMB but I like this version better!
    BabyFruit Ticker
    thatcmaSaphireSweetie88
  • This is great and I can verify its validity.  I was at my first appointment today and told my Dr I was having a hard time not telling people and waiting until 3 months.  She said as long as your first ultrasound is at 8 weeks (or a bit later), heart is beating and everything looks good, the chance of you miscarrying after that are very, very slim.  Does it happen?  Yes, but less likely so.  So she said, "After that appointment you can shout it from the rooftops!"  Haha! Still not sure if I'm going to wait or not.  But I was excited and definitely relieved to hear that.  
    Me: 29 DH: 31 SS: 12
    Met: 08/2001 Dating: 07/2004 ~ Engaged: 11/2009 ~ Married: 06/2011
    TTC: Since 09/16 ~ BFP 10/28/16 ~ EDD 7/5/17
    Team Pink * Canadian Bumpie
    glitterfish-2SaphireSweetie88
  • Thank you for this. I've been so worried and constantly reading articles about possible miscarriage. This makes me feel so much better :)
    SaphireSweetie88
  • Love this, thanks for sharing!


    SaphireSweetie88
  • Thank you for this. I've been so worried and constantly reading articles about possible miscarriage. This makes me feel so much better :)
    @breanamaldonado

    I have been trying to avoid articles online about other people who had a mc because it just makes me paranoid.
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


    kat0607
  • Hi. I'm lurking from June 2017. Can I copy and share this over there please?
    SaphireSweetie88
  • @kassyfry - Please do! We copied it from another group! :)
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


    tsarina-2
  • This is a wonderful post and it gave me lots of hope. I know things could go wrong but every day I can look and see my chances get better! Thank you!
    SaphireSweetie88
  • This is a wonderful post and it gave me lots of hope. I know things could go wrong but every day I can look and see my chances get better! Thank you!
    @cmandzak723  - I did this too when I was worried about having a mc with the bleeding. It's amazing how something so simple as this chart can provide a sense of peace.
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


  • This made my heart sing
    SaphireSweetie88
  • This made my heart sing
    @MrsMaxwell95

    Mine too! Right now according to the chart I have a 14.40% chance of having a mc. So even though I know it's still possible, it helps me not freak out about every little thing.
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


  • I love this chart so positive!  But I still can't help but thinking I could still be that 1%. It still happens to people. I'm going to the doctor next week and hopefully getting an ultrasound. Maybe that will ease my mind. 
    SaphireSweetie88
  • @morgarita

    Totally understand the concern. Try to relax mama you'll be okay and woohoo for getting an u/s
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


    morgaritavirginiaunicorn11
  • @mamadcb. Thank you for this. I needed it so much. My beta was really low and I'm worried it won't rise on Monday. But these numbers actually calmed me a little. They never told me my numbers in previous pregnancies and this one has me acting BSC already and we just found out this morning!
    **TW loss mentioned **



    12 miscarriages in first marriage (2007-2011)
    Surprise BFP - 06/2013
    Daughter stillborn at 22 weeks - 09/09/2013
    Married my best friend - 09/03/2016
    Genetic testing came back with APS - 10/03/2016
    TTCAL - 10/21/2016
    BFP - 11/18/2016
    EDD of Rainbow baby - 07/30/2017
    mamadcbSaphireSweetie88
  • @sparrowmomma24

    Fx for awesome numbers on Monday. I know they seem low and scary but I have a friend who had low numbers like yours (30 or 33) and she now has a healthy smart 7 year old daughter.
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


  • @SaphireSweetie88. Thank you. I needed to hear that
    **TW loss mentioned **



    12 miscarriages in first marriage (2007-2011)
    Surprise BFP - 06/2013
    Daughter stillborn at 22 weeks - 09/09/2013
    Married my best friend - 09/03/2016
    Genetic testing came back with APS - 10/03/2016
    TTCAL - 10/21/2016
    BFP - 11/18/2016
    EDD of Rainbow baby - 07/30/2017
    SaphireSweetie88
  • @sparrowmomma24 - Not a problem. I understand. When I had bleeding / spotting issues I liked hearing stories from people who had the same thing and now have a healthy baby / child. It helped me stay more relaxed.
    Me:28 | DH: 28
    Married: 07-2014
    TTC #1: Since November 2015
    Restarted TTC "count" Oct. 2016
         due to previous issues.
    ***TW***
    BFP: 11/4/2016
    *TW*
     BabyFruit Ticker


  • I keep coming back to this, it helps so much. Thank you for posting!!
    BabyFruit Ticker
    mamadcbSaphireSweetie88shstephenson
  • bump
    Pregnancy Ticker

    Highly monitored internet and no cell service in the office, so I'm postin' and ghostin' while I'm workin' 
  • I have my first OB appt today and I have been restless for days.  This made me feel so much better.  Thank you!!!!
    merrylea
  • Thank you for sharing this. I wonder, though, how the percentages change when the mother is much older than the norm, like me. I'm 45 . . . so the odds of miscarriage are higher, but I wonder how much so according to this chart. We aren't telling people yet because of these odds, but pretty soon it's going to be hard to avoid. Of course, most people will assume I'm fluffing out long before they assume I'm pregnant!
    Pregnancy Ticker
Sign In or Register to comment.
Choose Another Board
Search Boards