The odds of NOT having an early miscarriage

mamadcb · November 2016

In my January 2016 birth month group, @l4rk posted this shortly after we all started getting our BFPs and were therefore feeling anxious about potential loss. It was helpful to me see these numbers in black and white, so I'm copying her post word for word in hopes that it brings some peace of mind to my new July '17 buds.

Hello Ladies!

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies!

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

By the way, anyone in this January 2016 club already has a better chance of NOT having a miscarriage than having one... The numbers are on your side!

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

pepper16-2 · November 2016

@mamadcb This is amazing - thank you so much for sharing it!!

longhairdntcare · November 2016

LOVE this.

thatcma · November 2016

Oh thank you so much @mamadcb. This has made me feel so much better!

peachy13 · November 2016

wow, this rocks. Thank you.

kat0607 · November 2016

Thanks so much for posting this!!!

2beautifulboys · November 2016

Thank you so much, i suffered a miscarriage at 10 weeks back in July and am obviously feeling anxious to get my first ultrasound at the end of this month. This information is very reassuring and helpful, thanks and more thanks.

ThePecks · November 2016

it is nice to try to look at it from this perspective

Ralexa12 · November 2016

Thanks for sharing this! This is my first time getting this far, so just wondering... it looks like it steadies out at 9 weeks, why is it then that everyone says wait until 12 weeks to share for risk of miscarriage? Also, does anyone know how PGD effects these rates?

lauraash · November 2016

This is wonderful and made me tear up. I MCd in August at 8 wks and I'm very anxious about it happening again. This is such a ppositive spin. Thanks for sharing!!

Krisite · November 2016

Thanks for this @mamadcb

ninabaninaa · November 2016

Thank you so much for posting!

Cynth0104 · November 2016

Thank you! This makes me feel bette

JAM85 · November 2016

Thank you! We had this in our May 2014 BMB but I like this version better!

stokesm21 · November 2016

This is great and I can verify its validity. I was at my first appointment today and told my Dr I was having a hard time not telling people and waiting until 3 months. She said as long as your first ultrasound is at 8 weeks (or a bit later), heart is beating and everything looks good, the chance of you miscarrying after that are very, very slim. Does it happen? Yes, but less likely so. So she said, "After that appointment you can shout it from the rooftops!" Haha! Still not sure if I'm going to wait or not. But I was excited and definitely relieved to hear that.

breanamaldonado · November 2016

Thank you for this. I've been so worried and constantly reading articles about possible miscarriage. This makes me feel so much better

splashmountain · November 2016

Love this, thanks for sharing!

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

breanamaldonado said:

Thank you for this. I've been so worried and constantly reading articles about possible miscarriage. This makes me feel so much better

@breanamaldonado

I have been trying to avoid articles online about other people who had a mc because it just makes me paranoid.

dancegurl1118 · November 2016

Miscarriages can happen at any point even if the chances decrease. Don't let that get in the way of sharing with people. My personal view is that if I do miscarry I would rather have a support system of people around me than to be grieving in silence because I lost my pregnancy. I think the whole 12 week idea is silly. I'm just waiting for a heartbeat bc of the bleeding to share with most, we already told our immediate family and did the same with our last pregnancy. If you're excited why hold it in?

kfry22 · November 2016

Hi. I'm lurking from June 2017. Can I copy and share this over there please?

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

@kassyfry - Please do! We copied it from another group!

cmd723-z · November 2016

This is a wonderful post and it gave me lots of hope. I know things could go wrong but every day I can look and see my chances get better! Thank you!

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

cmandzak723 said:

This is a wonderful post and it gave me lots of hope. I know things could go wrong but every day I can look and see my chances get better! Thank you!

@cmandzak723 - I did this too when I was worried about having a mc with the bleeding. It's amazing how something so simple as this chart can provide a sense of peace.

MrsMaxwell95 · November 2016

This made my heart sing

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

MrsMaxwell95 said:

This made my heart sing

@MrsMaxwell95

Mine too! Right now according to the chart I have a 14.40% chance of having a mc. So even though I know it's still possible, it helps me not freak out about every little thing.

morgarita · November 2016

I love this chart so positive! But I still can't help but thinking I could still be that 1%. It still happens to people. I'm going to the doctor next week and hopefully getting an ultrasound. Maybe that will ease my mind.

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

@morgarita

Totally understand the concern. Try to relax mama you'll be okay and woohoo for getting an u/s

sparrowmomma24 · November 2016

@mamadcb. Thank you for this. I needed it so much. My beta was really low and I'm worried it won't rise on Monday. But these numbers actually calmed me a little. They never told me my numbers in previous pregnancies and this one has me acting BSC already and we just found out this morning!

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

@sparrowmomma24

Fx for awesome numbers on Monday. I know they seem low and scary but I have a friend who had low numbers like yours (30 or 33) and she now has a healthy smart 7 year old daughter.

sparrowmomma24 · November 2016

@SaphireSweetie88. Thank you. I needed to hear that

SaphireSweetie88 · November 2016

@sparrowmomma24 - Not a problem. I understand. When I had bleeding / spotting issues I liked hearing stories from people who had the same thing and now have a healthy baby / child. It helped me stay more relaxed.

nikkiandchris · November 2016

I keep coming back to this, it helps so much. Thank you for posting!!

glitterfish-2 · November 2016

bump

Knottie38762938 · December 2016

I have my first OB appt today and I have been restless for days. This made me feel so much better. Thank you!!!!

Kmomof3 · December 2016

Thank you for sharing this. I wonder, though, how the percentages change when the mother is much older than the norm, like me. I'm 45 . . . so the odds of miscarriage are higher, but I wonder how much so according to this chart. We aren't telling people yet because of these odds, but pretty soon it's going to be hard to avoid. Of course, most people will assume I'm fluffing out long before they assume I'm pregnant!

The odds of NOT having an early miscarriage

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