Sonographer made an "educated guess" about sex at 12 weeks

eightynine · March 2016

I went in for a genetic screening appt. yesterday. Was excited to see my baby again but otherwise didn't think much of this sonogram, didn't bring my boyfriend, etc. Well I was totally shocked when she asked if I wanted to know her "educated guess" about what baby is. Of course I said yes and she said it looks like a girl to her, because of the way baby's urethra is pointing. I'm not taking this as fact, of course, but I had a strong feeling it was a girl anyway, so it's hard not to become attached to the idea that its a girl.

I feel like I always hear that they never want to make a prediction this early- did anyone else get this at their regular appt.? I actually thought I might prefer a boy, but now that she said girl I want it to be true, lol.

steminist · March 2016

I had a dating scan at 9 weeks and the tech said that the heart rate indicated a girl. I think that it this stage, though, even an "educated guess" is really about as good as random chance. That's why OBs/nurses/techs usually won't say anything so early. Your sonogram tech might be right, might not be. I'd not buy anything gender-specific until confirmation at the 20 week anatomy scan!

Pepper6 · March 2016

At 12 weeks, it's still just a guess. My u/s tech said the same thing, that depending on which way it's pointing, they're is a slightly higher probability of being a girl or boy, but she did emphasize that percentage of being accurate based on that info is maybe 60/40 instead of the basic 50/50. So still not much to go on.

seitzy3 · March 2016

I think this bothers me so much because I had both "educated" guesses with my second and third pregnancy. Based on the ultrasound at 11/12 weeks the tech said a boy. Blood tests came back both as girls. 17 week ultrasound with my second confirmed a little girl. So for me personally, I use the blood test or later ultrasound for definite confirmation. Then I go shopping!

eightynine · March 2016

Huh, I'm surprised at how confident she seemed considering it still just is a guess. The heartrate thing I'd take with a grain of salt (although my baby does have a higher HR) but I just did some research and it looks like there might be some truth behind the urethra or "nub" theory. Guess we'll find out eventually!

mommytimesfour · March 2016

Last time with DD at my NT scan the tech said she was about 80% sure it was a girl, but I didn't really want to get my hopes up and I definitely didn't go buy anything girly. She ended up being right, but then again it's always a 50% shot. Personally, I'd rather not hear an early guess because then I drive myself crazy trying to decide whether they're right or not.

myjessesgirl · March 2016

My doctor did the same thing at 11 weeks. I guess a lot of the technology is improving so they are able to get better pictures. Still given the warning that her guess was just a guess, not to go painting the nursery blue. But it was nice to hear what she thought.

fkennard · March 2016

Image: https://us.v-cdn.net/5020794/uploads/editor/g5/0o3pic8kfry8.jpeg

So this is my friends 12w1d ultrasound.............the tech was like, um I'm 90% positive that you're having a boy!

diagonalley · March 2016

AGM0616 said:

My doctor did the same thing at 11 weeks. I guess a lot of the technology is improving so they are able to get better pictures. Still given the warning that her guess was just a guess, not to go painting the nursery blue. But it was nice to hear what she thought.

But it doesn't really have anything to do with technology...the parts just haven't developed enough yet.

tinypikachu · March 2016

Yeah, I don't think it has to do with technology. Maybe a combination of experience and a wild guess or something? At the office I go to, the doctor or nurse practitioner does the ultrasound during the appointment. Due to a previous loss, I had quite a few ultrasounds ib the first tri and every single time the NP swore it was a girl, she's 100% sure. She did this with my SIL and she was right. Maybe she was going off of the Ramzi method or sheer luck? I didn't ask her why she thinks that it's a girl (even though I've felt like it's a girl too) because I just don't believe in all those theories and there's no way to know until we see genitals poking out or not

Shiva14 · March 2016

When I was at my 12 week scan with DS the tech asked "do you want to know what you are having?". No " educated guess ", she said boy and was correct, but we still took it with a grain of salt. I have my 12 weeks scan tomorrow and will be 12+5, so I'm all for an educated guess but I won't buy anything/announce until I get my blood results.

PJpeppercorn · March 2016

Both of the guesses at 12 weeks were correct with my pregnancies.

Owenrhysandone · March 2016

They were sure beyond a shadow of a doubt at my 12 week sono for my first. They said boy and I have a boy!

Owenrhysandone · March 2016

There was no educated guess. The doctor/radiologist came in and said if you want to know what you're having we definitely know.

camichael84 · March 2016

Owenrhysandone said:

There was no educated guess. The doctor/radiologist came in and said if you want to know what you're having we definitely know.

Yeah, unless you had a gentic screening, it's an educated guess at 12 weeks. The genitals are not yet formed into a penis or vagina at that point, and both have "nubs".

I cannot stress this enough... it is a 50/50 guess either way. Their odds are good no matter what they say. On my first BMB, two women were told the wrong sex at their elective ultrasounds that were done during the actual time frame you should be able to distinguish the difference. And a woman I know IRL was told at her anantomy scan she was having a girl, and found out when he was born that he was actually a boy. These were all recent occurrences. Like in the last two years.

Nothing is definite until you get genetic screening or see a penis or vagina when they are born.

kcl219 · March 2016

I had a friend who at around 14 weeks was told she was having a girl. About a month later she went in for another US to discover it was a little boy! She didn't know she was pregnant until the beginning of the 2nd tri so that's why she had two US around that time. You just never REALLY know unless you have genetic testing or get a clear view on the US after 18 weeks. But of course it's always fun to guess! And a 50/50 chance makes it easy to guess right

bunnymay · March 2016

At 10 weeks our sonographer said LO was a girl. Her reasoning was that "only girls move around that much". She had three daughters herself and had obviously see many pregnant women. She was right!

diagonalley · March 2016

bunnymay said:

At 10 weeks our sonographer said LO was a girl. Her reasoning was that "only girls move around that much". She had three daughters herself and had obviously see many pregnant women. She was right!

That's a great example of an educated guess. She's educated on this topic, and she's making a guess based on her education. She had a 50/50 shot of being right. It's still not an exact science because it just can't be.

Akiratani · March 2016

At my 12 week NT scan the doctor was the one performing the ultrasound. He told me he could tell me the sex with 80-90% certainty. He said it was a girl, I am not announcing until the scan later just because I think it was really early. I hope he is right though!

camichael84 · March 2016

diagonalley said:

bunnymay said:

At 10 weeks our sonographer said LO was a girl. Her reasoning was that "only girls move around that much". She had three daughters herself and had obviously see many pregnant women. She was right!

That's a great example of an educated guess. She's educated on this topic, and she's making a guess based on her education. She had a 50/50 shot of being right. It's still not an exact science because it just can't be.

I would say that was more anecdotal than educated guess. Those guesses are still fun, bit I dont take them seriously. A co-worker told me I was having a girl with my first because my hips got wider and so did hers with her girls. She was right, but there was no real evidence. I also had a random stranger shout to me I was having a boy (it was weird when it happened) while walking down the street. No idea what her logic was, but we already knew she was a girl at that point.

My DD never moved much on ultrasounds. We always laughed about how stubborn she already was. She still is.

AnnaS930 · March 2016

With my first, during an appointment my OB was using the doppler and we got a heartrate around 140 (to my best memory). She said "Well I can guarantee you this... it's a BABY!" And went on to explain that she doesn't believe in any old wives tales and don't go buy the gallon of paint for the nursery (we used neutral wall color anyway). I know doppler and ultrasounds are completely different, but I'm happy to have an OB with a good sense of humor and not feeding into the guessing game.

But if I can get a job of guessing.. when there's only 2 options, sign me up!

marialevinson · March 2016

I went in for my 12 week appt last week and my sonographer (who has been doing sonograms for over 30 years and is usually very cautious) seemed very positive I was having a boy due to the way the nub was pointing upward. I go back at the beginning of April to confirm but I can't help but to think it's definitely going to be a boy.

Tporcelli526 · March 2016

So I work on l&d as a Rn. We deliver many different gestational ages due to losses. From personally handling them , at 12-14 weeks sometimes it's super clear it's a girl or boy and others absolutely not. We are not allowed to determine sex to the parents though until 20 weeks gestation but some times they can see themselves. I can see if u have an experienced sonographer how they can tell if it's a boy or girl. I just have my 12 w 5d scan with a sonographer that is almost correct with her early guesses (she only guesses if she can see something ) and she tells me it's another boy. We'll see if she's right in a few weeks

irishblessings916 · March 2016

I did genetic screening for my first and with each u/s he'd close his legs tightly lol. Never had a guess until 15 weeks. Then confirmed at our 20 week anatomy u/s. Then after that he was all too proud to show his parts lol!

IlikeIke2 · March 2016

I was told that by 12 weeks (Nuchal Scan), the ultrasound tech/the fetal maternal specialist can tell (90% of the time, but don't quote me on this statistic as there was not scientific literature to back it up) if it is a boy or a girl, assuming the fetus is in the correct position to determine the sex. I don't think they advertise this though because it is so early, they can't be 100% sure. So, they wait until the 20 week anatomy scan.

myjessesgirl · March 2016

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/17851807/ (Sorry this one is just an abstract) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3530251/ (Full article) Here's some scientific literature (for those like me who prefer PubMed and other sites rather than hearsay or message boards for definitive answers). As I said earlier, with increased accuracy of scans and better resolution, there are more accurate measurements as well as more accurate predictions. So, yes, while male/female genitalia remains very similar, the differences that do occur by 11-12 weeks are apparently distinguishable to a degree. Of course, this also depends on the expertise of the clinician, as well. So, while it doesn't give a conclusive answer, these articles might give some insight into why clinicians are able to give an educated guess at this point in time! They also offer statistics about how accurate the results happen to be at a given time.

tinypikachu · March 2016

AGM0616 said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/17851807/ (Sorry this one is just an abstract) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3530251/ (Full article) Here's some scientific literature (for those like me who prefer PubMed and other sites rather than hearsay or message boards for definitive answers). As I said earlier, with increased accuracy of scans and better resolution, there are more accurate measurements as well as more accurate predictions. So, yes, while male/female genitalia remains very similar, the differences that do occur by 11-12 weeks are apparently distinguishable to a degree. Of course, this also depends on the expertise of the clinician, as well. So, while it doesn't give a conclusive answer, these articles might give some insight into why clinicians are able to give an educated guess at this point in time! They also offer statistics about how accurate the results happen to be at a given time.

Yeah, it's pretty accurate after 15-16 weeks, that's what we're all saying. This study you referenced used 205 women, the earliest gestational age was 17 weeks, not 12 weeks.

llbne · March 2016

First-trimester determination of fetal gender by ultrasound.

Efrat Z, et al. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol. 1999.

Show full citation

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of fetal sex determination at 11-14 weeks of gestation.

METHODS: Fetal gender assessment by ultrasound was prospectively carried out in 172 singleton pregnancies at 11-14 weeks of gestation immediately before chorionic villus sampling for karyotyping. The genital region was examined in a midsagittal plane and the fetal gender was assigned as male if the angle of the genital tubercle to a horizontal line through the lumbosacral skin surface was greater than 30 degrees and female when the genital tubercle was parallel or convergent (less than 30 degrees) to the horizontal line.

RESULTS: The accuracy of sex determination increased with gestation from 70.3% at 11 weeks, to 98.7% at 12 weeks and 100% at 13 weeks. In the male fetuses, there was a significant increase in the angle of the genital tubercle from the horizontal with crown-rump length. Male fetuses were wrongly assigned as female in 56% of cases at 11 weeks, 3% at 12 weeks and 0% at 13 weeks. In contrast, only 5% of the female fetuses at 11 weeks were incorrectly assigned as male and this false-positive rate was 0% at 12 and 13 weeks.

100% accuracy at 13 weeks (and close to 99% at 12 weeks) seems a lot better than an 'educated guess' to me!!!

camichael84 · March 2016

llbne said:

First-trimester determination of fetal gender by ultrasound.
Efrat Z, et al. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol. 1999.
Show full citation
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of fetal sex determination at 11-14 weeks of gestation.
METHODS: Fetal gender assessment by ultrasound was prospectively carried out in 172 singleton pregnancies at 11-14 weeks of gestation immediately before chorionic villus sampling for karyotyping. The genital region was examined in a midsagittal plane and the fetal gender was assigned as male if the angle of the genital tubercle to a horizontal line through the lumbosacral skin surface was greater than 30 degrees and female when the genital tubercle was parallel or convergent (less than 30 degrees) to the horizontal line.
RESULTS: The accuracy of sex determination increased with gestation from 70.3% at 11 weeks, to 98.7% at 12 weeks and 100% at 13 weeks. In the male fetuses, there was a significant increase in the angle of the genital tubercle from the horizontal with crown-rump length. Male fetuses were wrongly assigned as female in 56% of cases at 11 weeks, 3% at 12 weeks and 0% at 13 weeks. In contrast, only 5% of the female fetuses at 11 weeks were incorrectly assigned as male and this false-positive rate was 0% at 12 and 13 weeks.
100% accuracy at 13 weeks (and close to 99% at 12 weeks) seems a lot better than an 'educated guess' to me!!!

Sorry. I don't really trust a study with only 172 test subjects. I also seeing accuracy being variable from tech to tech (or OB to OB).

diagonalley · March 2016

I'm with @camichael84 This debate is getting silly. Do what you want to do but if things don't turn out as expected, don't come boohooing here about it. True story...just this weekend my friend posted on FB about the surprise her sister had when her twins were born and they were opposite sexes. They were told at her A/S (which is further along than 11-14 weeks) they were both the same.

myjessesgirl · March 2016

I think the ultimate take away from all of this is that, no, it is not accurate at 11-13 weeks at 100%, but that it is something that is possible to predict at a low degree of accuracy. None of us are claiming to be sending out announcements or having gender reveal parties based on a "guess", but it is possible that the guesses are based on evidence, not on chance, and that they might give some moms a sense of excitement about the pregnancy. If you are not one of those moms and you prefer waiting until the birth of the baby to be sure (I'll admit, with DD, I had some gender neutral stuff around just in case the 20 week scan was wrong! And I'll likely not believe it 100% this time around, too.), then that's fine. But there is evidence to suggest that the moms on here who DID get an educated guess were NOT duped by their providers.

jas1982 · March 2016

Pretty sure we saw boy equipment on ours at 12w6d, both the sonographer and the doctor said, THAT'S a boy. The doctor did say he was only 95% sure, so don't paint the nursery, but I certainly do not think it's still 50/50.

barby1122 · March 2016

I'm an ultrasound tech. I don't ever go by the heart rate. It's not a guarantee on gender at all. Will it work out sometimes, yes but not always. At 12 or 13 wks it's just a guess. It really is too early to know for sure. I've scanned girls where the labia is swollen to where it looks like a boy. Ultrasound is nvr 100% people seem to forget that. Either way having a healthy baby is the only blessing u need to know ♡

toribear28 · March 2016

With my dating scan I got nothing but the expecting date! However, I have the feeling of a girl, want a girl and just today, told that the acne I am having (which did not happen in the 1st preg w/ my boy) indicates a girl. Has anyone else had other indications of a boy or girl w/ just the pregnancy symptoms being experienced? The other is that I have the worst constipation and likewise gas that I have ever had so early on. I remember only this happening in my 3rd trimester with my little boy. That is probably the most embarrassing and worst symptom experienced to date.

mhilpisch10 · March 2016

And this is why ... Team green for life!!

camichael84 · March 2016

@toribear28 My first is a girl, and my skin was the best in my life when I was pregnant for her. I don't think symptoms are any more of a valid way to predict sex. Fun to try and guess off of them, sure. Accurate, no.

toribear28 · March 2016

camichael84, thank you, that is good to know. A lot of ppl think this and that, so I really appreciate ur feedback!

rissarox7 · March 2016

I went for a u/s yesterday and babe was measuring at 13+6, and I was 13+1.
She showed us everything from the brain to the spine, to the fingers. Then bam, she was looking at the legs and looked at me in disbelief and said, you're finding out the sex, aren't you? I told her yes and her eyes flicked to the screen, you could CLEARLY see a little dooker. I even asked her if it was at ALL possible that it could be the umbilical cord and she said "No, that's a boy"...

I could see where they could misinterpret for a girl, as their testicles don't drop that early (so i've been told).. But you cant take away what is clearly there. The little peach was hung like a horse. I was in extreme disbelief, but it was definitely there.

mom2adoodle · March 2016

@toribear28 I'm actually sitting in my dermatologists office due to bad body acne and I'm having a boy. So...idk lol.

jas1982 · March 2016

@rissarox7 that was how my 13 week scan went to a T. First the US tech and then the doctor were like, uhhh, do you see that thing? Haha. Blood test seems to confirm

Akiratani · March 2016

Akiratani said:

At my 12 week NT scan the doctor was the one performing the ultrasound. He told me he could tell me the sex with 80-90% certainty. He said it was a girl, I am not announcing until the scan later just because I think it was really early. I hope he is right though!

He was wrong lol definitely a boy

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First-trimester determination of fetal gender by ultrasound.

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Abstract

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First-trimester determination of fetal gender by ultrasound.

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