At 12 weeks I bet it is a little of both! I know that our uterus is supposed to start rising above the pelvis at 12 weeks so you could definitely have a little baby bump going on! Plus, for the past few weeks, I have felt like all of my insides are being pushed up and out lol!
LOL......If you're like me, whatever your bump is when you wake up, is your bump. If it grows during the day, that is bloat. I swear I grow several inches around as the day progresses. Miserable!
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I looked like I was bloating at 18 weeks but now at 21-23 weeks I definitely look pregnant. When I first started showing I didn't want people to see because for some odd reason I felt like I was faking looking pregnant like how some girls with their first times say they are showing at 5 weeks lol.
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The definite way to tell is if your belly is hard. If it's still squishy, it's probably mostly bloat, with your uterus starting to push up and making you look bigger. I'm a FTM too and had a hard time telling, but once I got to the point where my belly didn't "squish" anymore, it was definitely baby.
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Re: Bloat or showing?