Odds of Not Having An Early Miscarriage

SkilledSailor

Hi ladies,

This is the chart that I look at daily. All credit goes to @l4rk for the following: 

Hello Ladies!

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies! 

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

ETA Stats from Expecting Better based off her research. Reversed to show positive side.

6W                     ~89%
7W                     ~92.5%
8W                     ~94.9%
9W                     ~96.5%
10W                   ~97%
11W+                 >98%

Overall odds of making it full-term based on Expecting Better:
~95% if no previous miscarriage. 75% with previous miscarriage (does not matter if multiple or not). She implies it's likely higher than 75% if using progesterone supplements but doesn't have the stats for that. 

SkilledSailor

The book Expecting Better has slightly different stats, and @starla that one does factor in previous losses.

ETA I can add those or PM them to those interested. Also, highly recommend the book! 

roadspeckle

Thank you for this @SkilledSailor!!! 

starla

Thank you for posting this @SkilledSailor! Could you post the ones from Expecting Better as well? I listened to it as an audio book so I didn't see that chart. 

SkilledSailor

@starla I just updated the post to include the stats from the book. The chart itself was massive, plus focused on the negative side so I flipped it. 

starla

@SkilledSailor Thank you! 75% is pretty high... I will try to focus on that. 

cbobell2009

Thank you for sharing @SkilledSailor

CSchoFink

You’re awesome! This is way less nerve-wracking! 

[Deleted User]

I've crossed into the 80%'s!!!!
<img src="https://us.v-cdn.net/5020794/uploads/editor/v1/1lizapopn4mk.gif" alt="">

MrsAdventure

Sitting at about 75%, this makes me feel better. Thank you for posting this

smsaulino

@SkilledSailor Thanks so much for posting this.. for about three weeks I was very exhausted and had a heightened sense of smell. I woke up this morning without any symptoms. I was only able to enjoy today a little because anxiety started coming in about no symptoms. I'm in the 93% now, and tomorrow I'll be in the 94%. It does give some relief. 

embri12

Thank you so much for posting this,@skilledsailor!

pourmeanothermocktail

Wanted to give this a bump before it traveled onto page two-I'm not ready for that yet.

spottedginger

There is also a website that calculates your personal statistics. I’m not sure the quality of the data or which study they fed into the calculations, but I’m super data driven, so I like it 
https://datayze.com/miscarriage-chart.php

meg+on+the+DL

@spottedginger Thank you so much for that! I like that it has the probability of pregnancy. Kind of makes me keep a positive spin on the whole idea. I was 34 when I delivered DD and I’ll be 37 when I deliver this one. So I know my risks have gone up. 

yogapants247

Thanks for this! I needed to see it today.

lagygin

Gosh these sure are helpful! I have been spotting this week and am terrified. I’m 8 weeks in two days so the statistics here are reassuring. Thank you for this! 

rlpointer

I really needed to see this. I've had three miscarriages between my two kids and now being pregnant again is definitely making me nervous. But it's good to know the odds on in my favor even if it's early still.  

elynds

Thanks for sharing! Those first weeks are so scary.

[Deleted User]

Bumping this up bc at 7+6, I still need to see this!

smsaulino

@iceicebaby921 hey there.. this is the thread I was telling you about. It had just recently got moved to the second page.

ashh2018

Thank you for sharing this! The positive spin absolutely helps to see this in a totally different light

sclarke7

Thank you for sharing this.. I really need some some good news vibes right now

klj0228

We have to keep this first page at least until we are all second trimester. Helps keep the nerves at bay.

klj0228

Commenting to keep it on the first page. 

be_love

I check this puppy out daily! Thanks so much for this!

klj0228

Trying to keep this off page 2. I’m not ready for that yet...definitely deserves first page status. 

lkt2018

Thank you for sharing!   This really helps peace of mind.  

jhjocelyn

Bumping up! Not ready for this to fade! 

magnolia209

So good to have this around! I check it every few weeks!

marimarii

Bump

smsaulino

Bumping this up.  

[Deleted User]

@KristoKekerooni ❤❤❤

starla

BusinessWife said:

@KristoKekerooni ❤❤❤

???

KristoKekerooni

@starla , sorry for the intrusion on your board. I just had remembered seeing this somewhere and couldn't remember where so @BusinessWife was kind enough to tag me. 

starla

@KristoKekerooni No worries about "intruding." I was wondering if i missed something. Off to stalk....

KristoKekerooni

@starla , oh bless you, I felt bad! Haha. Nothing to stalk (yet?). Beta is Thursday. Just getting ahead of myself.  

starla

@KristoKekerooni GL!!!! I'll keep an eye out on Thursday! I'll be thinking of you this week.

shouse11

Yesss!! Love this! Nerves are in full swing this week as I approach my next appt. This is very encouraging ♥️ 

SkilledSailor

@kristokekerooni Good luck! I’ll be thinking about you this week!

KristoKekerooni

Thank you, ladies @starla , @SkilledSailor
 Hugs!