The odds of NOT having a miscarriage

kfry22

I copied this from the July 2017 Board. Thought that it would give you all some comfort. This was originally posted by @mamadcb

In my January 2016 birth month group, @l4rk posted this shortly after we all started getting our BFPs and were therefore feeling anxious about potential loss. It was helpful to me see these numbers in black and white, so I'm copying her post word for word in hopes that it brings some peace of mind to my new July '17 buds.

Hello Ladies!

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies! 

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

By the way, anyone in this January 2016 club already has a better chance of NOT having a miscarriage than having one... The numbers are on your side! 

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

berg

@kassyfry Thank you for posting this!!  It's something I've been wondering about.

shmarpler

I love this! Thanks for posting!

LAMCH1980

Thank you for sharing! 

Waiting4Fred

Great idea! Remember, too, that once a viable heartbeat is detected, the odds of not having a miscarriage go up dramatically as well!

wifeinraleigh28

Like @Waiting4Fred said, once there is a strong heart beat detected, your chances of miscarrying drop below 1% (according to my OB)!

michaela0704

My OB said that once they detect a hearbeat, it goes from ~ 20%+ down to ~ 2%.  Good to confirm with another source!

zseirecarg

@kassyfry thank you for this

Sirius37

This is awesome! I remembered looking for this after I found out I was expecting since I'd seen it pinned in other BMBs and numbers make me feel better. Thanks @kassyfry !

three+1

Thank you for sharing this information. 

ccc123456

Holy crap this is so reassuring. I hit 12 weeks at Thanksgiving so we were planning to tell family then, but I'm just so cautious after our last loss that I was hesitating a bit (especially since I won't have an ultrasound at my next appointment right before then). I'm usually so rational, but I've been pretty incapable of that lately hahah so this chart really helps put things in perspective.

Mport90

Thank you for this, as I am constantly worried. I was like this last time, actually more like in denial until I seen him on the U/S.