Stats, when to test, etc.

marijaa333

Hi all!

So I'm 8 DPO, no symptoms but holding out a faint hope that the single time we BDed, 12 hours prior to ovulation, may have resulted in something.

Realizing this is a bit unlikely, I've been holding myself back from even thinking about testing just yet.  However, I have been researching the relationship between timing of testing and accuracy and found this website that gives some stats on that:

https://www.countdowntopregnancy.com/pregnancy-test/

For example, at 9 DPO, a pregnant woman has a 50-50 chance of the test showing a positive.

See here: https://www.countdowntopregnancy.com/pregnancy-test/dpo-chart.php?dpo=9

I haven't spent much time on the site so I'm not sure where they get their data or what the methodology is, but thought this group may be interested in checking it out!

Happy POASing.

tlc35

Hmm, those stats are pretty different than the ones in the newbie blog.  I wonder about the various methodologies and which is more accurate.

https://tbttgp.wordpress.com/hpt-accuracy-chart/

ETA: antecdotally I see most BFP in the TWW posts at 10dpo or 11 dpo and most of these posters are testing every day.

marijaa333

Thanks! Interesting. If the sample included both pregnant and non-pregnant women, then the percentages would conceivably be lower than the study where the sample only included pregnant women, although there are so many variables that... who knows. In any case, I asked for the source.

Also good to know about the 10 or 11 DPO anecdotal experience! I'll definitely wait to test. I really don't feel any different, except for lots of cystic acne (but then again, that is not unlike my face to explode at key moments).

hooligans4

This is why I won't test until after AF was due. BFN suck!!!!!

supersarah77

It seems like numbers are all over the place depending on the source.

FF says only 10% of their sample of pregnant women got a BFP at 10 DPO. Their sample was 93.184 women who charted on FF who eventually got a BFP. It was all kinds of HPTs, not a particular brand. (link)

FRER says 76% of women who were pregnant got a BFP 5 days prior to expected AF in their study. If the average LP is 14 days, then that would be 9 DPO. FRER seems to be a popular brand around here and it's the one I use. (link)

I'm 4 DPO and I do plan to test in a few days, even though I know there's a chance it'll be a false negative. AF is due in 5-6 days so she might beat me to the punch anyway.

kelley72

Best wishes and as today is the 2nd you're 10dpo - the earliest I would ever test, but I've never gotten a + before 12dpo.

lgsdesigner

If I were you, I would wait until 14DPO. I know it's not fun waiting, but it also isn't fun getting BFN after BFN...especially if you ARE pregnant. Hold tight, and keep busy! Almost there

marijaa333

Thank you! I keep temping at all hours, LOL. But I don't feel a huge need to test, especially not if I know I won't be getting an accurate result. 

The chances I'm preggers are very slim though, given our single BD, and that I have no symptoms, so I should really be planning some date nights for next cycle instead of draining the battery on my poor thermometer! AF should be here by this weekend, and if not, you'll be the first to know.

Thanks for the support, ladies!

marijaa333

P.S. Back to cover line BBT today, so I fully expect Aunt Flo on Friday (something about how you can't choose your relatives seems relevant here... A loving Aunt would stay away for circa nine months!).

My chart

(bfp warning)

URMySunshine77

I just want to jump in and gripe a bit that there is usually no rhyme or reason to TWW chart patterns. I've seen BFP charts that escalate temps, and I've seen charts that go low and then spike upon BFP.