NYT article on IVF rates — The Bump
Infertility

NYT article on IVF rates

Just read an interesting New York Times article "Data Murky on Fertility Rates" from yesterday (saw it via Twitter). It was mostly info I knew (that the success rates are self-reported and there's no validation of the data). The interesting part, for me, was learning there's a company that will take your stats and give a more accurate report on potential success rates. Anyone know more about that or try it?

***************************Loss Mentioned***************************


Me 37 y/o, DH 45 y/o; DH vasectomy reversal (his 2nd marriage) 11/8/12; TTC since 12/8/12. IVF due to MFI. DOR diagnosis April 2015.

 

IVF #1 BCPs/Antagonist w/ICSI Jan 2014 = BFN

IVF #2 MDL w/PICSI March 2014 = BFN

IVF #3 EPP/Antagonist w/PICSI May/June 2014 = BFP!; MMC 6w4d

IVF #4 No suppression/Antagonist Nov 2014/Converted to IUI #1 = BFN

IVF #4.1 Feb 2015 = cancelled

IVF #4.2 April 2015 - Lupron Stop Protocol with ICSI = PGD testing of embryo indicated it was abnormal

IVF #5 June 2015 EPP with Antagonist 

 

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Everyone welcome!

Re: NYT article on IVF rates

  • Hi - I saw the same article but am not sure I will try out one of the companies mentioned (esp since our diagnosis is unexplained).  If the percentage were to come out much lower than the SART data, I would likely be devastated.  And I want to try to be optimistic - even though that is easier said than done.

    That being said - if I am still in the same position in a few months, I may take a look.

    What I found most interesting in that article was that really isn't transparency in reporting - 1 cycle means even if it takes several transfers to achieve pregnancy that is a success.  I learned this after my first failed cycle when my RE said it wasn't a failure (we had 1 egg frozen). 

    Would be interested in hearing other's views on this as well.
    ***signature/ticker warning***
    Me:37 DH:39
    TTC#1 since 3/2012

    Diagnosis : Unexplained Infertility

    3 BFN rounds Clomid + IUI
    IVF 1 - BFN, 1 Frozen
    IVF 2 - BFN, 5 Frozen
    FET 1 - BFP!!! EDD 1/24/15 Beta 1: 700, Beta 2: 2,156; 1st U/S 6w3d: HB 118bpm, 2nd U/S 9w3d: HB 171bpm

    imageimageimage
    Pregnancy Ticker
  • Milagros315Milagros315 member
    edited April 2014
    I've seen companies like that, but there's no way I would spend money for their input. I can't imagine how it would be reliable. They're cutting out the clinic/doctor entirely, right? While I completely agree that sart data can easily be skewed and I dont put my trust in that entirely, I don't think you can discount the fact that some labs have better equipment. Some doctors have a better sense of when to change meds/protocol or when exactly to trigger.

    Eta: There is also a free website that I've tried. You put in all of your information such as age, diagnosis, number of cycles without success, protocol and so on. I tried that one and it gave me a slightly lower success rate than the average. I think endo gives slightly lower chances than unexplained IF.
    ******************************************** siggy warning ******************************************

    image image

    image

    Married July 2011 * TTC #1 since 8/12 * Me: 29 DH: 29
    21 Cycles TI: BFNs
    DX: Stage 2 Endo, uterine polyps and paratubal cysts removed
    2/14: IVF #1 Lupron Protocol = 12R/10M/9F, no frosties; transferred one 3BB blast = BFN
    4/14: IVF #2 Antagonist Protocol = 18R/16M/15F/6 frosties; transferred one 4BB blast = BFP!!
    Beta #1 (5/12) = 232 Beta #2 (5/16) = 886 Beta #3 (5/20) = 3168
    EDD 1/18/15 It's a BOY 

    ~~~~~~ All Are Welcome ~~~~~~

    Lady2010
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  • I figured (perhaps wrongly) that the company mentioned in the NYT article got the unfiltered IVF data and not just the summary data that is posted, to make their analysis. My RE gave me a 60% chance for both of my failed IVFs. I think I would have had the analysis done, if I'd known about it, before I started IVF. At this point, I've become a realist, even if my RE is still, perhaps, overly optimistic about my chances for success with each try. My impression is that few REs will tell you it's going to take multiple tries- I certainly was made to feel it would work the first time and I would have rather had a more realistic conversation. My prior research led me to believe that it would probably take about three tries, but then my RE is saying 60%, and of course I want to believe him. I ended up not doing a package (the break even point is three IVFs) so if my next IVF fails, I would have been better off paying for the package, but hearing 60% made me think I wouldn't really need more than one, possibly two. If the more detailed analysis had said for my particular situation, it takes women 3.4 times (or something like that) I probably would have bought the package. I've done a lot of data analysis/data manipulation with my job, so I would believe a reputable company's results over my RE whose expertise is treatment not success rates, etc.

    ***************************Loss Mentioned***************************


    Me 37 y/o, DH 45 y/o; DH vasectomy reversal (his 2nd marriage) 11/8/12; TTC since 12/8/12. IVF due to MFI. DOR diagnosis April 2015.

     

    IVF #1 BCPs/Antagonist w/ICSI Jan 2014 = BFN

    IVF #2 MDL w/PICSI March 2014 = BFN

    IVF #3 EPP/Antagonist w/PICSI May/June 2014 = BFP!; MMC 6w4d

    IVF #4 No suppression/Antagonist Nov 2014/Converted to IUI #1 = BFN

    IVF #4.1 Feb 2015 = cancelled

    IVF #4.2 April 2015 - Lupron Stop Protocol with ICSI = PGD testing of embryo indicated it was abnormal

    IVF #5 June 2015 EPP with Antagonist 

     

    image
    Everyone welcome!

  • I'm coming to this discussion fresh from my IVF prep consultation (literally it was 2 hrs ago). And I have to say I feel my RE was very honest and upfront with me about not only our chances of success, but also the risk factors that can change or cancel our course of action. My chances according to my age (31), diagnosis (blocked tube and MFI) , and hormones/ovarian reserve (great), were 62% to concieve, but more like 50% to make it to live birth, according to my RE, for IVF#1. The chances only go down from there.

    He also said that my chance of miscarriage was 20% for each transfer. I like these odds much better than IUI, but as with every medical procedure, there are always risks along with the expected outcome.

    However, I look at this from the prospective of having had two surgeries and never having gotten the chance to be pregnant at all. I'll take the risk for the final reward.

  • **loss mentioned**

    After what happened to me and my boys, I am not a believer in statistics.  The way we lost our boys was highly unusual, and our doctor estimated we were about 1 in 10,000.  That means that the probability of it happening to us was extremely low, and yet here we are.  The chances of me getting pregnant again using IVF are high, but if I don't get pregnant then those statistics are garbage.  I have to agree with a lot of people - charging people money for a statistical analysis is a waste.  However, I do think that the article itself is interesting. 
  • SKLHSKLH member
    edited April 2014
    I agree fully with @pblge And it almost pisses  me off that they create that crap. To me it's total crap. Wanna know why? I was told I would be successful on my first round. Here I am at Embryo transfer #5 lol On paper I am PICTURE perfect. No big issues at all. Heck, not even any small issues. I make lots of embies, have thick lining, even genetically tested embryos.... unsuccessful. The truth of th ematter is this is a big LOTTERY. It's so unpredictable. My RE told me last week that he sees girls all the itme with bad looking uteruses that get pregnant so he has no idea why I am not  since everyhitng looks so perfect lol There's NO way to  predict this stuff.  What a joke IMHO
    Me (28) DH (32)  Endometriosis                                                                                   IVF  #1 (1/2013) - 17 Retrieved, 16 Mature, 14 Fertilized- 2 transferred- BFN
    FET #1 (7/2013) - 2 embryos - BFN
    FET #2 (9/2013) - 2 emrbyos - BFN
    New RE. Fresh Start
    IVF  #2 (2/2014) - 25 Retrieved, 19 Mature, 16 Fertilized, 9 blasts.
                                 CGH Testing: 6 Normal
    FET #3 (4/2014) -1 embryo -  BFP! Beta#1: 35 Beta #2: 16 :(
    FET #4 (5/2014) -1 embryo -  BFP! Beta#1: 321!!! Beta #2: 727.9!
    6/5/2014 Heartbeat! 144bpm It's a girl!
    Due January!
     

     

  • Rebecca'sMamaRebecca'sMama member
    edited April 2014
    Statistics like these are useful for making predictions about groups of subjects but are not very useful in making predictions about a particular case. 

     Edited because it first said "butter" instead of "but are."
    ---- Elizabeth
     (Child mentioned) 

    Dx: PCOS + MFI (low motility and morphology)

    IVF w/ ICSI cycle #1 
    9 days stimming with Gonal-F, Menopur, Cetrotide
    ER on 4/21 - 19 eggs retrieved, 12 mature, 8 fertilized normally
    3 embryos survived to blastocyst
    2 hatching blastocysts transferred on 4/26
    Faint BFP on 6dp5dt and getting darker each day
    Beta #1 (11dp5dt) = 292
    Beta #2 (18dp5dt) = 6,154
    Ultrasound at 6w2d reveals a single baby with a heartbeat of 125 bpm! EDD 01/12/2015
    Ultrasound at 8w0d: heart rate 164 bpm
    Ultrasound at 9w4d: heart rate 185 bpm
    Panorama tests returned in 10 calendar days. Low risk for everything!
    It's a boy!!!
    ~~~~~~~~~~
     Mom to a 7 year old daughter, conceived with IUI (Clomid + Repronex) after 2 years of IF, 2 cancelled IUIs and 2 BFN IUIs
  • pblgepblge member
    Statistics like these are useful for making predictions about groups of subjects butter not very useful in making predictions about a particular case.
    Precisely!

    And @Carol77B - You're definitely right that not all REs will give you an honest picture; they're trying to sell you their services! Some are more scrupulous than others, of course.
    **********************siggy/ticker warning**********************

    ***Losses mentioned.*** TTC #1 since May 2012. Me: 37, OH: 41. Ectopic August 2012 => tubal damage. :'(  Stage 1 endo removed June 2013. IVF #1 Oct/Nov 2013: Long Lupron with Gonal-F. 7R, 7M, 7F. 2 [email protected] Nothing frozen.  => M/C @ 8 wks. :'( Selected RPL panel all normal. Very hyper and brittle response to stims. IVF #2 (antagonist protocol) Feb 2014 => Converted to IUI (Perfect conditions). BFN. IVF #2.1 w/ new RE June 2014: Antagonist protocol. 33R, 31M, 30F, 19 blasts to test!!! I made it through without crashing!! :) Hats off to Dr. Fancypants!! ET of one 5AB blast. BFN. 13 10 CCS'ed snowflakes! FET #1 PUPO as of 7/29 Betas: 8/[email protected], 8/[email protected], 8/[email protected] (etc.) Two sacs on 8/15, one seen on 8/18 after a bleed. U/s 8/25 (6+3) "perfect": 5.9 mm + [email protected]! U/s 9/4 (7+6): 15.9 mm + [email protected] bpm! Please, PLEASE stick this time!!!!
    http://i955.photobucket.com/albums/ae39/catfreeburg/866da40f5178fed79efe23fc8a4e8a_zps4498a9cc.jpgimageimageimageimage
    image
  • The last RE I consulted with gave me a score 16/20 which is "excellent" (mostly because I have high AMH for my age group due to PCOS).  However the program she used only analyzed my data and didn't factor in DH's MFI at all.  

    My first RE said 60% odds (this seems to be a common percentage) but did say that it often takes 3 tries to get a take home baby. 

    I'll be doing cycle # 4 in late summer.  
    Melissa - 36   DH - 42
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    PCOS, MTHFR, MFI
    TTC # 1 4+years
    6 months Clomid/Unmonitored TI with GYN
    1st RE visit Jan'11
    7 Clomid IUI's 3/11-3/12 - 4 with DS
    8/11 Clomid/IUI/DS - BFP!  MMC 8 weeks D&C 10/11
    4/12 Moving on to IVF!
    8/12 IVF/ICSI 16R/6M/5F 5DT of 2 blasts, froze 1 BFP! Heart beat at 7wk us! MMC 9 weeks D&C 10/12
    1/13 FET Transferred our 1 frozen blast - BFN
    6/13 IVF/ICSI 27R/17M/7F 3DT 2 embryos, froze 1 hatching blast - BFN  
    11/14 IVF 33R/28M/20F (12/16F DH/ICSI, 8/12F DS/Natural) - 5dt of 2 morulas - BFP! 
                   Beta 1 12dp5dt - 162
                   Beta 2 15dp5dt - 414  
    image  image
  • Statistics can be both comforting and deceiving.  I think that infertility statistics are so hard to truthfully track for many reasons.  First being that we all have struggles due to different reasons, and therefore have the propensity to be more successful.  Also, the clinics releasing the data have a vested interested in having good numbers, so I have a hard time trusting their statistics!
    Pj
    *~*Signature Warning*~*
    Me: 35 Healthy
     DH: 44 vasectomy with failed reversal. 
    IVF #1: Follistim/Ganirelix: 10 retrieved, 4 perfect embies. 2 transferred, 2 frosties = BFN
     IVF #2: Follistim/Ganirelix: 11 retrieved, 1 perfect embie transferred = BFP Willow 4/14/11 
    FET #1: 2 frosties, neither survived the thaw
     IVF #3 Bravelle/Menopur/Ganirelix 4 retrieved, 1 perfect embie transferred = BFN 
    IVF #4 Microdose Lupron/Bravelle/Menopur: 8 retrieved, 6 fertilized, 2 transferred, 2 Frozen: Beta 1: 63, #2: 51, #3:148 #4: 537 #5 2204.  US #1: very small gestational sac.  US#2: Empty sac 

    image
  • I read that article and groaned when I saw these "pay for success rate" websites mentioned. As a community, IF patients get taken advantage of enough, so it's frustrating to see new companies popping up for profit. It's too bad we are all so taxed by this process or we could start a consumer advocacy group to try to protect ourselves.
    *** TW ***
    2013: BFP #1 - M/C 3/13
    2014: IVF #1-4 = BFFN
    2015: Dance break = got healthy
    7/2016: IVF #5 = BFP!!!
    Babysizer Cravings Pregnancy Tracker
  • I found this IVF prediction calculator: http://www.ivfpredict.com/index-1.html

    My RE gave me that 60% chance of success figure for my fresh cycle, too. That calculator says my first shot had a 31.3% chance! This round it gives a 17% chance, hurray for turning 35.
    TTC #1 since 2011 · Me (35, PCOS, AMA, abnormal eggs) and DH (47, MFI)
    2012-2013: 3 Clomid cycles, 3 IUIs, all BFNs
    IVF #1 January 2014: 14R/12M/9F 1 transferred, 3 frozen = BFN
    FET #1 March 2014: 1 transferred = BFFN · FET #2 May 2014: 2 transferred = BFFN
    IVF #2 June 2014: 24R/11M/10F 6 PGS tested: 1 normal embryo, 1 with no result
    FET #3 in March 2015: 2 transferred = BFFN
    imageimageimageimageimage
    LilySlim Weight loss tickers
  • rhiennacrhiennac member
    edited May 2014
    Edited for Spam
  • pblgepblge member
    I found this IVF prediction calculator: http://www.ivfpredict.com/index-1.html

    My RE gave me that 60% chance of success figure for my fresh cycle, too. That calculator says my first shot had a 31.3% chance! This round it gives a 17% chance, hurray for turning 35.
    Yeah, I found that calculator before IVF #1 and was appalled by the numbers. I really don't think it's very accurate...at least I hope it's not, as my numbers are the same as you got!
    **********************siggy/ticker warning**********************

    ***Losses mentioned.*** TTC #1 since May 2012. Me: 37, OH: 41. Ectopic August 2012 => tubal damage. :'(  Stage 1 endo removed June 2013. IVF #1 Oct/Nov 2013: Long Lupron with Gonal-F. 7R, 7M, 7F. 2 [email protected] Nothing frozen.  => M/C @ 8 wks. :'( Selected RPL panel all normal. Very hyper and brittle response to stims. IVF #2 (antagonist protocol) Feb 2014 => Converted to IUI (Perfect conditions). BFN. IVF #2.1 w/ new RE June 2014: Antagonist protocol. 33R, 31M, 30F, 19 blasts to test!!! I made it through without crashing!! :) Hats off to Dr. Fancypants!! ET of one 5AB blast. BFN. 13 10 CCS'ed snowflakes! FET #1 PUPO as of 7/29 Betas: 8/[email protected], 8/[email protected], 8/[email protected] (etc.) Two sacs on 8/15, one seen on 8/18 after a bleed. U/s 8/25 (6+3) "perfect": 5.9 mm + [email protected]! U/s 9/4 (7+6): 15.9 mm + [email protected] bpm! Please, PLEASE stick this time!!!!
    http://i955.photobucket.com/albums/ae39/catfreeburg/866da40f5178fed79efe23fc8a4e8a_zps4498a9cc.jpgimageimageimageimage
    image
    ExoticAntibiotic
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