Odds of NOT having a miscarriage

KristoKekerooni · June 2018

Stolen from Sept. '18

Hi ladies,

This is the chart that I look at daily. All credit goes to @l4rk for the following:

I've noticed that no matter how many times I look up miscarriages rates, I walk away feeling only slightly better (at best). I'm the kind of person who finds reassurance in statistics, but for some reason, all of the existing posts weren't doing it for me. And then I realized why: articles on miscarriage focus on the chances you're going to miscarry and all the comments share miscarriage stories--they don't focus on how many people DON'T have miscarriages and go on to have happy, healthy babies!

I adapted this week-by-week chart and modified it so that it would focus on the positive rather than the negative! Since I found the positive spin benefiting my peace of mind, I thought it might benefit some of you too.

Progress	Probability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D	67%
3W, 1D	67.10%
3W, 2D	67.40%
3W, 3D	68%
3W, 4D	68.70%
3W, 5D	69.70%
3W, 6D	70.80%
4W, 0D	72%
4W, 1D	73.50%
4W, 2D	74.80%
4W, 3D	76.40%
4W, 4D	77.90%
4W, 5D	79.50%
4W, 6D	81.10%
5W, 0D	82.70%
5W, 1D	84.20%
5W, 2D	85.60%
5W, 3D	87%
5W, 4D	88.30%
5W, 5D	89.50%
5W, 6D	90.60%
6W, 0D	91.60%
6W, 1D	92.50%
6W, 2D	93.40%
6W, 3D	94.10%
6W, 4D	94.70%
6W, 5D	95.30%
6W, 6D	95.70%
7W, 0D	96.10%
7W, 1D	96.50%
7W, 2D	96.80%
7W, 3D	97%
7W, 4D	97.20%
7W, 5D	97.40%
7W, 6D	97.50%
8W, 0D	97.60%
8W, 1D	97.70%
8W, 2D	97.80%
8W, 3D	97.80%
8W, 4D	97.90%
8W, 5D	97.90%
8W, 6D	97.90%
9W, 0D	97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)	98%+

ETA Stats from Expecting Better based off her research. Reversed to show positive side.

6W ~89%
7W ~92.5%
8W ~94.9%
9W ~96.5%
10W ~97%
11W+ >98%

Overall odds of making it full-term based on Expecting Better:
~95% if no previous miscarriage. 75% with previous miscarriage (does not matter if multiple or not). She implies it's likely higher than 75% if using progesterone supplements but doesn't have the stats for that.

kayjay44 · June 2018

I pretty much look at this daily too. I use the SpaceFem chart. I also use her "odds of going into labor" chart when I hit about 35 weeks.

cmjenkies · June 2018

Somebody posted an interactive link that has this info on it the other day too that I liked

kayjay44 · June 2018

This is the one I like: https://spacefem.com/pregnant/mc.php?m=08&d=10&y=12

I'm in limbo hell RN since I had a mmc almost exactly 3 years ago at 5w5d - I'm 5w2d now and have an US on the 27th when I'll be 6w2d.

antera23 · June 2018

As a first time mom who suffers from anxiety, this made me feel so much better. Thank you for posting

ruby696 · June 2018

@kayjay44

**TW** I had a MMC diagnosed at 10 weeks (baby stopped growing around 8 weeks), so I also feel like I'm in limbo until i get past 8 weeks. **End TW**

With that said, the odds were in my favor for DS and DD, so the chart does help keep my anxiety in check.

kayjay44 · June 2018

@ruby696 - Totally I get it and I'm sorry you're in the same boat.

ruby696 · June 2018

@kayjay44 Kinda weird to go back and forth with anxiety about having a successful pregnancy and the anxiety of "oh crap, we're going to have three kids!" Lol

canadianmom89 · June 2018

TW post

I love this chart but just to play devils advocate.... it can be a false reassurance. I had a MMC in February. No development passed 5 weeks, found out at 10 weeks and had to have medical intervention at 12 weeks because my body wouldn’t miscarry naturally

KristoKekerooni · June 2018

I think we are all WELL aware that there are also people that fall on the other side of the statistic. It doesn't meant he stats are wrong. It just means the likelihood of it happening again aren't as high as we think.

ruby696 · June 2018

@KristoKekerooni True. I went on to have two healthy babies after my MMC.

KristoKekerooni · June 2018

I mean, I totally get that the stats aren't the end-all be-all.... TW, this is my sixth pregnancy, no living children. I totally get it. But I still think looking at the numbers gives me hope.
Happy to hear you found success.

kayjay44 · June 2018

@ruby696 - That's EXACTLY where I am

For the other convo - *TW* I've also had a MMC and I took medication - it didn't work fully and I hemorrhaged on a ferry, had to be unloaded first and rushed to the ER where I was rushed into surgery. I could have died. I'm well aware what it's like on the other side, unfortunately. I'm someone who likes data - it gives me some sense of reassurance when I have no control or additional information. I very well could lose this baby, but statistics are on my side at this point.

ruby696 · June 2018

This pregnancy is exactly like my pregnancy with DS and DD. *TW* my MMC and CP had similar symptoms which I did not have with DS and DD, so I'm feeling okay about things so far. *End TW** And yes, knowing the odds are on your side does reduce anxiety.

@KristoKekerooni I so hope this is it for you!

ThePax89 · June 2018

Anxiety is the queen of “what if” IMO. It doesn’t focus on the 97% chance of having a live birth- it focuses on the 3% chance of miscarrying. But that’s just me. I’m not a fan of these stats.

JNR6510 · June 2018

@KristoKekerooni I really do hope this LO is a super sticky bean for you! FX for a very uneventful smooth pregnancy and delivery!

I have to agree with ThePax89. I’m also not a fan of these sorts of stats. They are fine and dandy for the average female with little to no reproductive trouble, but are pointless for those who don’t fit into that group. These stats can lead to unnecessary blame placement for women who do suffer a loss when the “stats” say she only had a 3% chance of such. Just my opinion.

darkstar42 · June 2018

@KristoKekerooni Thanks for posting this! I’ve been looking at similar charts every day to help calm my worries.

KristoKekerooni · June 2018

@ThePax89 , @JNR6510 , as someone who does have reproductive trouble (hello, sixth pregnancy with zero living children), I absolutely disagree. If you somehow equate being the unfortunate women in the lesser category as "blame," then you need to rethink your attitude toward statistics. There is ALWAYS someone on the flipside. And that sucks. BELIEVE me, I know. It sucks. Anxiety is real. Again, I deal. I know. I think you missed the entire purpose of flipping the numbers so it focuses on the chances of not miscarrying, instead of the opposite.

Statistics play a HUGE role in science, and it's really important to take them for what the are. Even people with reproductive issues still fall into a category. But even if YOU don't find comfort in these numbers, the VAST majority of women here do. Many women won't have a miscarriage/another miscarriage. So let it be. If you don't like these numbers, don't look. Because every time someone posts how these aren't accurate the them, it makes other women have doubt. What's the point in that?

Want a personalized experience?

Odds of NOT having a miscarriage

Re: Odds of NOT having a miscarriage

Choose Another Board

Search Boards