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November 2018 Moms
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Probability of NOT Having a Miscarriage

purelexpurelex member
in November 2018 Moms
Hi ladies,

I know there are many women who have experienced losses on this board.  In my previous BMB (October 2016), there was a post similar to this (and original linked below).  I am hoping this may help some of us stay positive!

January 2016 BMB - Original Post
https://forums.thebump.com/discussion/12575727/the-odds-of-not-having-an-early-miscarriage/p1

Adapted from this original chart:
https://spacefem.com/pregnant/mc.php?m=08&d=10&y=12

ProgressProbability of NOT having a miscarriage
3W, 0D67%
3W, 1D67.10%
3W, 2D67.40%
3W, 3D68%
3W, 4D68.70%
3W, 5D69.70%
3W, 6D70.80%
4W, 0D72%
4W, 1D73.50%
4W, 2D74.80%
4W, 3D76.40%
4W, 4D77.90%
4W, 5D79.50%
4W, 6D81.10%
5W, 0D82.70%
5W, 1D84.20%
5W, 2D85.60%
5W, 3D87%
5W, 4D88.30%
5W, 5D89.50%
5W, 6D90.60%
6W, 0D91.60%
6W, 1D92.50%
6W, 2D93.40%
6W, 3D94.10%
6W, 4D94.70%
6W, 5D95.30%
6W, 6D95.70%
7W, 0D96.10%
7W, 1D96.50%
7W, 2D96.80%
7W, 3D97%
7W, 4D97.20%
7W, 5D97.40%
7W, 6D97.50%
8W, 0D97.60%
8W, 1D97.70%
8W, 2D97.80%
8W, 3D97.80%
8W, 4D97.90%
8W, 5D97.90%
8W, 6D97.90%
9W, 0D97.90%
9W, 1D (and on)98%+


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Re: Probability of NOT Having a Miscarriage

  • tinypikachutinypikachu member
    I love this!! We had it in my last BMB too and I checked it every week. PGAL brain is absolutely terrible. Thanks so much for sharing!
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  • purelexpurelex member
    As with all/most statistics, there will be outliers and anomolies... from the original data, I believe this probably refers to spontaneous or unexplained losses.  I am sorry if this is upsetting to you, that was obviously not my intent.  I defied the odds a few times myself but I don't think that takes all of the value away.  I am choosing to hope I fall into the 98% anyway.
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  • shastaskyshastasky member
    I saw my OB two weeks ago and she said something similar, in regards to concerns about miscarriage, she said that once a heartbeat is detected (around 6-7 weeks) the chances of a miscarriage go down to 10%. Hope this helps newly discovered mommies!
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  • pink_polkadotspink_polkadots member
    It makes me wonder why the “12 week rule” then. I will piggy back on what @offtoneverland explained, and even elaborate on my own personal loss....TW in spoiler 

    My my first pregnancy ended in a pretty traumatic miscarriage at 12 weeks and maybe a day or two. I had a D&C and they tested the tissue for chromosomal abnormalities and there weren’t any. The doctor said there was no explanation for it, that sometimes it just happens. 

    So while I am happy that these numbers bring comfort to others, it makes me also question why my first pregnancy didn’t make it with percentages as high as these. 
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  • EveinshockEveinshock member
    edited April 2018
    offtoneverland said:
    I'm sorry in advance, but I have to be a Debby Downer for a minute. I'll give it a TW and stick it in a spoiler for those who don't want to see it. 

    TW
    I can totally see your point on this and as someone who had a missed MC at 11 weeks I really thought I was out of the danger zone. The problem with that was that I had no idea baby stopped growing.  So even though I THOUGHT I fell into the 98%+ stats, I didn’t know that I was really falling into maybe the 6 week stats.  
    That being said it still does make me feel better now bc as of 9.5 week ultrasound everything looks perfect.  I was so bitter about waiting so long to get in for that but it was probably a blessing given the prior loss.  
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