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January 2015 Moms
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Birthdate probability chart for spontaneous labor

JosephsSweetieJosephsSweetie member
in January 2015 Moms
Hi ladies! 

I don't know how many of you have used this before, but if you're nerdy like me you might find this chart interesting. It gives the probability for spontaneous labor on any given day during the last few weeks of your pregnancy. 
(And of course it comes with all the usual qualifications and disclaimers about predicting when your baby will come. You can read more on her site if you're interested in all the studies that went into this data.)

I used this for fun when I was down to the last few weeks with my first one too. In my opinion, the best thing about this chart is that your current odds change daily to adjust for your still being pregnant. 

Also wanted to point out that statistically, only 50% of babies are born by their due date if left to spontaneous labor. In other words, don't freak out if you're nearing 40 weeks and your baby hasn't come yet. It's totally normal!!!

Have fun! Happy waiting :)
Be the change you wish to see in the world. ~ Mahatma Gandhi

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Re: Birthdate probability chart for spontaneous labor

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  • mmookimmooki member
    Bahahah... 0.02% chance of giving birth the day Ds showed up.
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  • bebe051781bebe051781 member
    Thanks for sharing!!
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  • gigismama221gigismama221 member
    1.71% for me today, feeling luckyy lol:)
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  • jmcmoejmcmoe member
    Today is the highlighted (yellow) day for me at 40 weeks 2 days...maybe I will get lucky :)
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  • MichaelSC28MichaelSC28 member
    SO...omg I would die if she stayed in there till Feb 15th. Man it really makes you think about things when probability wise you only have really 50/50 chance of having your LO on your actual due date. I mean I understand that your Dr. is also just ESTIMATING..so technically there is a variable that you can't control..maybe you are due really a week later or week earlier. 

    I guess..I will go back to just trying to be patient! Its hard though...but its probably healthier  that she takes her time. 

    I think that maybe EDD are dangerous things, and we should just tell people that their EDD is a month not a day or even a month or two. Maybe that would bring down the stress of things. 
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