Do you think it is an OWT that FTMS typically go over?

IBackBevo · May 2014

So my NP told me statistically that I was most likely to have the baby in the 39th week. I found this website that uses data from the cdc and it also estimated that I would go at 39.6. It uses the birth stats from 8 million women. It gave me the same date regardless of whether I put in I was a ftm or stm. Yet, my doula claims that I am likely to go over (and she predicts way over) because I have never been in labor before even though I am a second time Mom.

I started researching online and really could not find any support for the idea that ftm typically go past their due date anymore than stms. (Obviously, some will and some won't, but on average most women go within a week or so of their edd either way. ) I found one study, but it was so small (only 31 ftms) as to not mean anything. In fact, I found a website that had polled over 6k women and both ftms and stms on average delivered at 39 weeks 5 days for women with spontaneous labor.

So is this whole thing an OWT? I have literally heard it my entire life, but I am not finding much to support it.

Sdufort1216 · May 2014

I think it's a owt because I have talked to so many people and it seems like most were EARLY with their first babies so I'm confused too... what website had the statistics you were talking about?

chillypenguin · May 2014

With DD1, I went into labor on my own at 39w5d and had her at 39w6d. DD2 my water broke and I went into labor at 37w2d. So I did go earlier with my second, but I wasn't overdue with my first. Both times I was charting and know my dates were correct. I have had just as many FTM friends go early as I have had STM friends go late.

hfooter · May 2014

hmm... I wish I could remember where I read the statistic that said that! My CNM also said FTM typically are 1.5 weeks late and so did my birth class and breastfeeding class teacher...I just took their word for it!

But god, I hope they are wrong. Baby Clay, it's time to GTFO!

IBackBevo · May 2014

@Sdufort1216‌ - The website that gives you an edd based on cdc data is when to expect dot com. I can't link to the other one because I am on mobile, but try searching space fem and when will my baby be born or something similar.

Sdufort1216 · May 2014

ok thanks!

Hallil · May 2014

I don't think it's untrue (and wasn't for me, I went 40+5 w/DD1) but I think that so much plays into this answer that there is no way to know.

How many of those women were induced?

How many were c sections?

How many had any inducing interventions at all (stretch/sweep etc)?

How many people used "at home" induction methods?

How many knew their ACTUAL ovulation date and therefore had a TRUE due date and how many were based on the good old 28 day cycle that so few women actually have?

If you look at women that know their ovulation date, have no medical intervention or induction tries ("natural" or otherwise) and completely let things happen when they want then IME FTM's do typically go a little over. There are always exceptions of course but I don't think there is a simple answer out there.

IBackBevo · May 2014

The space fem website also links to a bunch of medical studies. Most say that about 65-70 percent of women will give birth 7-10 days on either side of their due date. Nothing about ftms "typically" going 1-2 weeks late like I have always heard other than the one very small study.

Also, like I said above, my health care provider told me that most women give birth in their 39th week...ie between 39 weeks 0 days and 39 weeks 6 days.

Sdufort1216 · May 2014

omg it says i can expect my
baby at 43 weeks lol shoot me

HARLEYSMOM2010 · May 2014

My first daughter came at 38+1 my second at 37+6 and my third at 37+2... I thinks it's an OWT.. You will go into labour when your body and baby are ready regardless of it's it's your first or fifth

RachelCA29 · May 2014

I think it's an anecdotal OWT. Everyone knows someone that was a FTM, STM ,etc. that either went early or late. The stat I most believe is that on average women go into labour within +/-9 days of their due date.

If FTMs really did go late consistently, I feel like doctors would account for this when estimating due dates. My OB has said nothing to me about going early or late because I am a first time mom.

Here are some sources: https://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate0.php

https://spacefem.com/pregnant/charts/duedate6.php

https://www.parents.com/pregnancy/giving-birth/labor-and-delivery/the-truth-about-due-dates/

I'm surprised there are not more scientific studies about this ... but maybe it's because the OWT is so pervasive it has taken over the internet.

IBackBevo · May 2014

Hallil said:
I don't think it's untrue (and wasn't for me, I went 40+5 w/DD1) but I think that so much plays into this answer that there is no way to know.

How many of those women were induced?

How many were c sections?

How many had any inducing interventions at all (stretch/sweep etc)?

How many people used "at home" induction methods?

How many knew their ACTUAL ovulation date and therefore had a TRUE due date and how many were based on the good old 28 day cycle that so few women actually have?

If you look at women that know their ovulation date, have no medical intervention or induction tries ("natural" or otherwise) and completely let things happen when they want then IME FTM's do typically go a little over. There are always exceptions of course but I don't think there is a simple answer out there.

Well, I think most of the studies only looked at women who went into labor on their own and separated out inductions, c sections...and I don't think at home methods or steps are going to put you into labor unless you are ready anyway.

momthatlifts · May 2014

Definitely think it's an owt. I know a lot of ftm who went earlier. I really think it just changes person to person

sparklingdiamond · May 2014

mary97 said:

I've always heard too that firstborns are typically late, I know I was. I'm now hoping it's an OWT.

For fun I went to that site and it had the largest percentage at 39 weeks, crossing fingers she's a little early.

My highest percentage was at 39 when I went to the site too. I hope it's right!

Hallil · May 2014

IBackBevo said:

Hallil said:
I don't think it's untrue (and wasn't for me, I went 40+5 w/DD1) but I think that so much plays into this answer that there is no way to know.

How many of those women were induced?

How many were c sections?

How many had any inducing interventions at all (stretch/sweep etc)?

How many people used "at home" induction methods?

How many knew their ACTUAL ovulation date and therefore had a TRUE due date and how many were based on the good old 28 day cycle that so few women actually have?

If you look at women that know their ovulation date, have no medical intervention or induction tries ("natural" or otherwise) and completely let things happen when they want then IME FTM's do typically go a little over. There are always exceptions of course but I don't think there is a simple answer out there.
Well, I think most of the studies only looked at women who went into labor on their own and separated out inductions, c sections...and I don't think at home methods or steps are going to put you into labor unless you are ready anyway.

It makes a pretty big difference if they did or didn't, my MW practice has a high rate of people who know their o date, don't do any induction methods at all, and over 75% of FTM's go late. If you go ask any ob, their rates are a lot lower, a lot. Like I said, I don't think it's black and white.

If nothing else it would be nice if people could relax at the end of pregnancy and not be pissed off they are "late." I get it, it's uncomfortable, but the more people bank on a certain day the more unpleasant most get when it comes and goes. It's kind of a hope for the best but plan for otherwise thing.

IBackBevo · May 2014

Hallil said:

IBackBevo said:

Hallil said:
I don't think it's untrue (and wasn't for me, I went 40+5 w/DD1) but I think that so much plays into this answer that there is no way to know.

How many of those women were induced?

How many were c sections?

How many had any inducing interventions at all (stretch/sweep etc)?

How many people used "at home" induction methods?

How many knew their ACTUAL ovulation date and therefore had a TRUE due date and how many were based on the good old 28 day cycle that so few women actually have?

If you look at women that know their ovulation date, have no medical intervention or induction tries ("natural" or otherwise) and completely let things happen when they want then IME FTM's do typically go a little over. There are always exceptions of course but I don't think there is a simple answer out there.
Well, I think most of the studies only looked at women who went into labor on their own and separated out inductions, c sections...and I don't think at home methods or steps are going to put you into labor unless you are ready anyway.
It makes a pretty big difference if they did or didn't, my MW practice has a high rate of people who know their o date, don't do any induction methods at all, and over 75% of FTM's go late. If you go ask any ob, their rates are a lot lower, a lot. Like I said, I don't think it's black and white.

If nothing else it would be nice if people could relax at the end of pregnancy and not be pissed off they are "late." I get it, it's uncomfortable, but the more people bank on a certain day the more unpleasant most get when it comes and goes. It's kind of a hope for the best but plan for otherwise thing.

Well, not all of us have the luxury of just being able to sit back and wait for it to happen. I am a vbac Mom and even the most vbac friendly doctor in my city (which has the largest medical center in the world) won't "let" her vbac Mom's go past 41 weeks due to risk of rupture and decreased chances of vbac success.

Mikki62 · May 2014

My friends midwife actually calculated her due date at 42 weeks because she was a FTM. It made everything so confusing because her water broke at 38 weeks and she ended up going to the hospital to be induced because it'd been 36 hours and she still wasn't in labor at home. The midwife told the doctors at the hospital her due date she'd calculated and they all thought her daughter was only 36 weeks. It caused a lot of problems with them thinking she was premature.

Bootsie327 · May 2014

What website did you find this on? I'm curious. No babies in my family have ever gone over, so I feel strongly that I will have him before my EDD. We are 10 days out now, so we'll see!

Lild09 · May 2014

So there's a 49% chance I deliver today or tomorrow lol or 31% chance during the next week my edd til 41 weeks. Ha hope this thing is right!

cindythelou · May 2014

I'm starting to think they just tell FTMs to expect to go 7-10 days late so we are not disappointed (or so we don't start freaking out) when the baby doesn't come on (or before) the EDD.

crystalmir91385 · May 2014

I don't think there is any way to prove it or not. DD was 9 days early. I was 13 days early. DH was about 2 weeks early as well. I would almost argue that it runs in the family, but I know that isn't true either. It all depends on the person and the baby.

jenb_99 · May 2014

Ha...the Parents site tells me my baby should come on May 22, the day my RCS is scheduled 39w1d). But they only use two criteria, and one of them is last menstrual period? That doesn't seem like it would be very accurate.

The WTE site says week 39 has the highest odds (36%).

Have any of you tried Pregnology's alternative due date calculator? It uses a ton of factors, including maternal prepregnancy weight and height, and even whether you consume caffeine. That one says May 23 for me, which would be 39w2d, one day after my RCS is scheduled. Hmm. Have you tried that one, @IBackBevo?

I wonder what my projected date would be if I could tell the calculator that I'm a STM with a history of stubborn cervix and too-small pelvic opening (DS probably wouldn't have come on his own at all) and I had a failed induction that led to c-section.

Hallil · May 2014

IBackBevo said:

Hallil said:

IBackBevo said:

Hallil said:
I don't think it's untrue (and wasn't for me, I went 40+5 w/DD1) but I think that so much plays into this answer that there is no way to know.

How many of those women were induced?

How many were c sections?

How many had any inducing interventions at all (stretch/sweep etc)?

How many people used "at home" induction methods?

How many knew their ACTUAL ovulation date and therefore had a TRUE due date and how many were based on the good old 28 day cycle that so few women actually have?

If you look at women that know their ovulation date, have no medical intervention or induction tries ("natural" or otherwise) and completely let things happen when they want then IME FTM's do typically go a little over. There are always exceptions of course but I don't think there is a simple answer out there.
Well, I think most of the studies only looked at women who went into labor on their own and separated out inductions, c sections...and I don't think at home methods or steps are going to put you into labor unless you are ready anyway.
It makes a pretty big difference if they did or didn't, my MW practice has a high rate of people who know their o date, don't do any induction methods at all, and over 75% of FTM's go late. If you go ask any ob, their rates are a lot lower, a lot. Like I said, I don't think it's black and white.

If nothing else it would be nice if people could relax at the end of pregnancy and not be pissed off they are "late." I get it, it's uncomfortable, but the more people bank on a certain day the more unpleasant most get when it comes and goes. It's kind of a hope for the best but plan for otherwise thing.
Well, not all of us have the luxury of just being able to sit back and wait for it to happen. I am a vbac Mom and even the most vbac friendly doctor in my city (which has the largest medical center in the world) won't "let" her vbac Mom's go past 41 weeks due to risk of rupture and decreased chances of vbac success.

Not sure why you're defensive? No, not everyone can sit back and wait, that's understandable, but my original post was questions about the studies you've found, because there is quite a difference if each answer is yes or no. And as I've said multiple times, it's why I don't think there's a sure answer either way. When there is such a huge difference in the standard of care, the expectations and interventions and the lack of correct due date assessment to begin with, how can we know?

IBackBevo · May 2014

jenb_99 said:
Ha...the Parents site tells me my baby should come on May 22, the day my RCS is scheduled 39w1d). But they only use two criteria, and one of them is last menstrual period? That doesn't seem like it would be very accurate.

The WTE site says week 39 has the highest odds (36%).

Have any of you tried Pregnology's alternative due date calculator? It uses a ton of factors, including maternal prepregnancy weight and height, and even whether you consume caffeine. That one says May 23 for me, which would be 39w2d, one day after my RCS is scheduled. Hmm. Have you tried that one, @IBackBevo?

I wonder what my projected date would be if I could tell the calculator that I'm a STM with a history of stubborn cervix and too-small pelvic opening
(DS probably wouldn't have come on his own at all) and I had a failed induction that led to c-section.

Thanks for that website! Very interesting. It tells 39 weeks 6 days, too! That is awesome. Every prediction website out there tells me 39.6. Fingers crossed they are all correct!

IBackBevo · May 2014

@Hallil‌ - I was not meaning to come across as defensive. Several studies are on the spacefem website linked above. Many do control for those issues.

My point in my reply was to your statement that in my view implied we should just all sit back and relax and not be pissed or concerned. All you (and i mean that not specifically about you but in the group sense) have to do is look around here to know that most ladies don't have providers who will let them go indefinitely past their due date. It may not be consistent with acog guidelines or other recommendations or even evidence based, but sadly it seems like most of us have some sort of deadline between 39-42 weeks where our provider will start pushing induction or csection if we have not delivered. For me personally, seeing statistics that say I am likely to deliver before then does ease some of the anxiety/fear that goes along with knowing I have a "deadline." (And I also know that no one can make me be induced or have a c section, but I also am not going to try to find a new provider at 41 weeks or attempt a vbac at home with just my husband. )

spinsoffresonance · May 2014

I think we'll need a clicky poll mid June to answer this question!

keeumm · May 2014

The When to Expect site says 39 weeks. I have no problem with that.

ETA: I'm a FTM. The other site says exactly 40.

usernewname · May 2014

My MW always says FTM tend to go over. I would love to believe its an OWT though, I'm ready. Bring baby on, after Thursday when she returns from a conference haha.

ho11yday · May 2014

I was induced about 10 days after my due date with DS. I expect to go late with this one too as I'm due this Thursday. But my mom was late with me by (3 weeks back in the day) and a week late with my brother.

When I asked my midwives, the idea was that it depends on your normal cycle. When not on bcp, my cycle is about 35 days.

RachelCA29 · May 2014

ho11yday said:

I was induced about 10 days after my due date with DS. I expect to go late with this one too as I'm due this Thursday. But my mom was late with me by (3 weeks back in the day) and a week late with my brother. When I asked my midwives, the idea was that it depends on your normal cycle. When not on bcp, my cycle is about 35 days.

This is really interesting! I never thought about that being a factor. Before I got pregnant my doctor thought I had PCOS because my periods were so random and really far apart (60 days was not abnormal for me). I was waiting to do one more hormone test for PCOS when I got my positive pregnancy test.

I was 2 months late, which wasn't weird for me so my husband and I didn't really think I could be pregnant, I figured I was just typically really late/random cycling. But despite not having a period for 60 days before my BFP, I was only 5 weeks pregnant at my dating ultrasound. So I wonder if this will affect when Colin actually makes his grand appearance.

cindythelou · May 2014

According to pregnology, my baby will come on my birthday 5-23! Ha! Guess that's not too unbelievable considering my "real" EDD is 5-20.

awc1986 · May 2014

I'm an FTM and DD was 1 day early. 5 hours 9 minutes early to be precise. I was also told I was likely to go over because I was 2 weeks late myself, which turned out to be crap.

amroke · May 2014

My son (first baby) was 8 days early and I'm sure of the conception date.

I just did the pregnology calculator with all the info for my pregnancy with him and it said he'd come a day late.

talkthewholetime · May 2014

Veganlady said:

My MW told me it's an OWT. She opined that if you go late, you'll do that your first second third preganancies, it is just a matter of your how body does it.

I agree - with the exception of one (I can't remember who, but I want to say the oldest), 5 out of my MILs 6 children came late.

IBackBevo · May 2014

Veganlady said:
My MW told me it's an OWT. She opined that if you go late, you'll do that your first second third preganancies, it is just a matter of your how body does it.

This is honestly what I think is probably true. It doesn't really make sense from a biological stand point why ftm would have their babies on aver an entire week later.

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Welcomed our rainbow baby 5/20/2014! It's a girl!

Welcomed our rainbow baby 5/20/2014! It's a girl!

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