Probability of conception — The Bump
TTC after 35

Probability of conception

All these calculators that predict my chances of conceiving are depressing me. This one says I have less than a 2% chance of conceiving in my next cycle. This one says I have a 20-30% chance in one year. This one says I have a 25% chance of conceiving with IVF (but I can't afford it until 1/2015) and a 15% chance after 7 IUI cycles. My RE says my chances of conceiving naturally are less than 10% per cycle (not sure how much less). Dr. Sher thinks my chances of conceiving naturally is 5% per cycle. I do not know what to believe, but none of this data makes me feel good about my chances of conception. It makes me feel like I should just give up.
Me: 37; DH: 35, SA normal ttc 1st since 11/2011 1/2013: HSG 2/2013-4/2013: acupuncture 3/2013: SHG 4/9/13: lap removed stage 2 endo & ovarian cyst 9/2013-11/2013: Clomid 3x 12/2013: IUI/superO 2013: spent $4,900 on treatment Waiting until 1/2015 for IVF insurance

Re: Probability of conception

  • The thing to focus on is the percent that get pregnant. That could be you. Please try and stay positive. Just keep telling yourself you will get pregnant.

      Me:39, DH:40

    DD born 8/96, DS born 8/04


    NTNP since 2006, active trying 1/13

    Natural M/C 3/13 at 7 weeks

    CP 2/14

    Daisypath Anniversary tickers


    All welcome

  • I'm sorry you are feeling overwhelmed by the stats.  I've been there myself as well.  Alwasy try and focus on the percent that do get pregnant. Also, when I start spouting about success rates, statistics and such my RE is quick to point out those are averages.  There are people who beat the odds too.  I stil believe I will be one of them and you should too.  Have faith and keep going!  If you quit now, you will most definitely not succeed. 

    Best wishes your success is right around the corner!

    **** siggy warning - bfp & loss ****   ---- All Welcome ---

    Me: 44 - Hashimoto's (under control), DH: 38 - (minor issues)

    IUIs: 2 in 2012 ... Both BFN
    IVF #1: 10/16/13 ... BFP, however it was not viable and ended in an early loss at 7weeks.
    IVF #2: Feb '14 ... Cancelled. Positive beta at baseline appt, became very early loss.
    IVF #2: Apr '
    14 ... Retrieval Only. 2 embryos made it to day 3 freeze & will be batched with IVF #3 for PGD testing.
    IVF #3: June '14
    Retrieval Only. 4 embryos growing, all arrested before day 5. Two from April thawed, but also arrested.
    Currently benched while determining how to proceed.

    "Keep going until you can't fail"


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  • The ladies summed it up perfectly.... stay positive!
    ***siggy/ticker warning***

    Me:36 DH:38 TTC#1 since 4/2012
    Me DX: Hashimotos,Hypothyroid, DOR, MTHFR,  DH: normal

     IUI #1-#4 BFNs and a few cancelled cycles in the mix.
    - poor responder
    ***Suprise BFP on 6/13/13. Natural MC @6wks 3days
    IVF#1 and 2- Cancelled due to no response on max stimms
    FET 5/20- BFP
    1st Beta- 641
    2nd beta- 2166
    Sono- TWINS!!!!
    Two Boys! Born January 2015 @36 weeks.  Healthy and no NICU!  So blessed!


  • Yeah--I kind of wish I hadn't followed those links. :-<

    But as @PrivateOne points out, people defy those odds every day--the Pregnant After 35 boards on this site and elsewhere are full of them.

    And as one of the articles points out itself, mathematical models are useful for health care providers and "policy wonks," not for individual women trying to better understand their odds of getting pregnant.  That BabyMed quiz actually seems kind of irresponsible.

    Don't give up hope! :)

    *****Signature/Ticker Warning******

    Me: 41, DH: 45
    DD, 6/15/2013
    TTC #2 beginning January 2014
    AMH 1.05; FSH range 7-11

    July 2014: IUI #1.  Follistim + Pregnyl.  2 follicles--BFN
    September 2014: IUI #2.  Follistim + Pregnyl + Ganirelix + Crinone.  4(?) follicles--BFN
    October 2014: IUI #3.  More Follistim + More Ganirelix + Pregnyl + Crinone.  4 follicles--BFP!  Beta #1=10 Beta #2=33 Beta #3=97 Beta #4=158.  M/C 11/1/14
    December 2014: IVF #1.  Microdose Lupron protocol.  9R, 9M, 9F.  3 5-day blasts transferred 12/15. BFFN.
    April 2015: IVF #2.  Microdose Lupron protocol.  16R, 15M, 12F. Transferred 2 5-day blasts 4/12 and froze 4--BFP!  M/C 5/25/15
    August 2015: IVF #3.  14R, 13M, 11F.  Froze 5 blasts for CCS testing.  3 normals.  FET planned for 10/2015.

    Baby Birthday Ticker Ticker


    My Ovulation Chart

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  • I know its difficult but hang in there and think positive. OP's have said it well and we are here for you :)

    ME:46 MH:44 DE IVF 2014
    Met with RE 4/11. 2 IUI's BFN. DE best option. Switched clinics to do "shared" program. Had to retake all tests and a mamm that put me behind and then on a DE waiting list for 12 months. Picked a donor!! (10/13/13) Got matched. Estimated transfer in December. After 2.5 years of patiently waiting I will finally cycle....can hardly believe it. DE cycle got cancelled. One of her tests came back positive.  Waiting for another donor. Donor picked!! (1/18/14)

    DE IVF #1 (4/26) BFN  DE FET #1 (6/4) BFP! Beta 1=339 Beta 2=852 Beta 3=9957 EDD 2/22/15!!



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