Risk of m/c dropping?

bio-oesch · September 2011

So i've heard a couple people mention that around 10wk their doc told them there m/c risk has dropped to 1%.

I thought 12wks/ 2nd tri was the safe zone? We're the 10weekers just special cases? I'm just confused and would love to also be in the 1%

Tambcat · September 2011

I wondered about this too. I think that at 10 weeks, all the major structural developments are done, so maybe your risk does drop then. Maybe they just say the end of the first tri b/c it's easier or something.

careyalis · September 2011

My doc said that my levels alone being so good would take me down to about a 15% chance, but that combined with the fact that they could find the heartbeat so easily and it was so strong dropped my chances to less that one percent. If you have already heard the heartbeat and you are 10+ weeks, I think you can count yourself in the lucky 1%

tmattson2005 · September 2011

So, when i went to the Er 08/27 because I had a bleed and he actually had a heartbeat and just said it was a threatened miscarriage would i be out lol!!! I actually took a HPT yesterday since you can show positive up to two weeks after a bleed and it still showed positve so im super excited for our apt on Tuesday!! Last time i had an apt she came back to tell me i was not preg and that we were having a miscarriage so i have been driving myself crazy about it happening all over again!!

LilyPotter218 · September 2011

I started spotting at 8 weeks so I became obsessed with this statistic. After way too much looking into it, it is once you hear the HB on DOPPLER the risk drops significantly after the 10 week mark.

I had only seen HB on u/s and apparently that has less meaning than on doppler b/c they can see HB on u/s at like 6 weeks. (Obviously not out of the woods at 6 weeks). The HB you hear on u/s is "fake" it takes the beats the machine sees and creates the sound if that makes sense...

katcarls · September 2011

From what I've read the risk of loss is still 3% during second tri and doesn't drop to 1% until third tri.

atotheizzo · September 2011

the 12 week statistic is actually born from when peoples first appointment was during this timeframe.

every day, your risk drops. however, no one is in the clear until the baby is here.

AshleyC0117 · September 2011

I've actually heard you go down to 1% at 16 weeks. It's all so scary to think about! I feel blessed for every day I remain pregnant.

lizmitchell15 · September 2011

I don't quite understand the whole seeing the heart rate vs. hearing it. If you can see it, isn't that just as good as hearing it? In order to see it the heart has to be beating right? Therefore, just cause you can't hear it yet doesn't mean you should be worried. Right? Wrong? I'm confused.

bio-oesch · September 2011

atotheizzo:

the 12 week statistic is actually born from when peoples first appointment was during this timeframe.

every day, your risk drops. however, no one is in the clear until the baby is here.

Well I know the worry is never over, it only gets worse once baby is here and for the rest of your life. I was just curious about this new 1% at 10wks info I have been reading.

bio-oesch · September 2011

lizmitchell15:
I don't quite understand the whole seeing the heart rate vs. hearing it. If you can see it, isn't that just as good as hearing it? In order to see it the heart has to be beating right? Therefore, just cause you can't hear it yet doesn't mean you should be worried. Right? Wrong? I'm confused.

I'm confused at this too....

LilyPotter218 · September 2011

lizmitchell15:
I don't quite understand the whole seeing the heart rate vs. hearing it. If you can see it, isn't that just as good as hearing it? In order to see it the heart has to be beating right? Therefore, just cause you can't hear it yet doesn't mean you should be worried. Right? Wrong? I'm confused.

All it means is that hearing it = you are further along. Doppler can usually pick one up between 10 and 12 weeks. They can see a HB at just under 6 weeks in some cases, but there is a lot that can go wrong after that. In that case, your risk may be a little less but there is still a LOT of development that goes on. You hear of so many missed miscarriages where the fetus stopped growing between 6-8 weeks, well those babies likely had a HB.

I think 10 weeks is a milestone b/c so much of the major brain, heart, and spinal development takes place between like 6-10 weeks.

I was told that at the start of the 14th week, the start of the second tri, the risk is about 1.5% and that stays the same right up until delivery. The most common cause of a second tri loss is incompetent cervix or pre term labor. In the third it is injury to the mother and again the pre term labor. Some of the trisomies also often end in stillbirth/late term loss but the stats on those are SO low...

Every article, website and likely Dr is going to tell you something different.

LnA5909 · September 2011

I'm not sure that's true about seeing vs hearing the heartbeat and the u/s making a synthetic HB. At 5w5d, Baby B had a visual HB that we could see as a tinky flicker. However, we tried and tried to "find" one auditorily (via vag cam) and all we could here was static. However, at my following appointment, we could hear both babies' heartbeats. If it were just visual, the vag cam wouldn't be able to distinguish between the two, because one wasn't selected over the other on the u/s screen.

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